Hillary Clinton will likely be the next president, despite her staggering unfitness and due in no small part to the disaster that is the Republican nominee, Donald Trump.
I've increasingly wondered about what Congressional and statewide opposition to her will look like in the charred remains of #DumpsterFire2016. Turns out, the news is somewhat concerning.
First, in light of Trump's repeated assertions that the GOP doesn't win any more and that the election process is rigged, remember what occurred two years ago. At the time, I described it as a “Big Red Flood.”
In the Senate, Republicans picked up 7 seats:
In the House, Republicans gained 14 seats:
In Governor's races, Republicans won 3:
Results in statehouses across the country were similarly positive, with Republicans acquiring control in 8 chambers. They had the balance of power in four times as many states as Democrats - and breaking the 2012 record number of wins in the process:
Given this significant (and seemingly forgotten) recent history, how do things look for 2016?
In the Senate, they don't look great. RealClearPolitics is identifying 8 toss-up Senate races:
By drilling down into the polling and picking amongst the toss-ups based upon current trends, the GOP loses its majority:
In the House, odds look much better. Unless something dramatic and unexpected happens, the Republicans will maintain their majority, even if they lose ALL of the toss-ups:
In the Governor's races, the GOP will likely maintain its majority. Of the 3 toss-up contests, Democrats are polling better in Indiana and North Carolina while the Republican holds a slim margin in New Hampshire:
There is far less polling information about the statehouse elections, but it is unlikely that Republicans will lose many given their current clout. Despite some significant Democrat focus on various states and seats, the overwhelming majority of state representatives get reelected, in part because they run unopposed.
Given concerns about maintaining a Congressional majority, House Speaker Paul Ryan has recently (and very understandably) stated that he won't be doing any campaign events on behalf of the GOP Presidential nominee and will instead focus on House elections. Conservatives, concerned about the effects of a Clinton - or Trump - presidency, would be wise to do the same.
No matter who wins the election, there will need to be active resistance in statehouses, governors' mansions, and in Congress to push back against what will certainly not be a limited-government, liberty-minded Executive Office.