Republican National Convention: Day Four

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The first major post-Republican National Convention polls are in, and as expected, Donald Trump is riding high after becoming the GOP's official standard-bearer.

In fact, according to the CNN/ORC International poll released Monday, Trump has taken the lead over presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton for the first time since winning the nomination back in May.

Per the CNN poll, Trump leads among registered voters, 48% to 45%.

2016 general election matchup, Clinton v. Trump:

Voters even gained a more favorable impression of the Donald following the convention, despite its myriad controversies.

The poll found that 4 in 10 voters believe Trump gave a good or excellent speech on Thursday night, and 42% responded that they would be more likely to support him in November as a result of the week-long convention.

Trump is even gaining ground on Clinton among:

  • White non-college graduates (65% to Clinton's 27%);
  • Independents (49% to Clinton's 34%); and
  • Voters over the age of 45 (53% to Clinton's 38%).

Nonetheless, the former Secretary of State remains strong with several groups that could hurt Trump in November, including:

  • All college graduates (51% to Trump's 36%);
  • Non-whites (66% to Trump's 21%); and
  • Women (47% to Trump's 43%).

The Washington Post has a detailed breakdown of where support for the two candidates have shifted as a result of the GOP convention:

Perhaps more important is the fact that Trump is picking up ground on Clinton in a number of key battleground states according to a new CBS poll.

That poll, which was released Sunday, found that Trump is ahead of Clinton, 42% to 41%. Prior to the convention, Clinton lead 41% to 40%.

States in which the CBS poll was conducted, July 2016:

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It's too early to tell if his new lead is purely an effect of the convention bump - which is typically around 5% - or a seismic shift in the tectonics of the race.

Monday is the start of the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, and although it is already off to a rocky start, it is possible that Clinton can expect a similar boost of her own by week's end.

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