Trump is running against severe headwinds when it comes to persuading women to back him in the presidential election.
The political analysis blog FiveThirtyEight recently published the fascinating story: “Women Are Defeating Donald Trump.”
The blog article includes an election results map showing the hypothetical electoral college tallies if the respective leading presidential candidates maintained their current levels of support among women:
As the famed pollster Nate Silver wrote:
For the time being, Clinton’s lead is holding at about 6 percentage points in our polls-only model, which gives her an 84 percent chance of winning the White House. Clinton’s chances are 80 percent in our polls-plus forecast.
There are several factors that may be impacting Trump's run related to women voters. The first is a series of relatively dated videos and sexual assault accusations surfacing just a month away from the election. The second is that he is running against potentially the nation's first woman president — although that does not appear to be a decisive factor.
If we flip the equation and show just the male support in the 2016 presidential election, we get a much different picture...
Wow. That's quite a different map.
Women, however, have historically been deciding elections in the United States. As VoteRunLead.org notes:
According to exit polls, 53 percent of voters in the 2012 elections were women, which means that women determined the outcome of the presidential election.
Dianne Bystrom, the director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics at Iowa State University, says the reason the gender gap is critical is that more women are registered to vote than men in most states and there is a much higher female turnout rate at the polls. In the 2008 election, 10 million more women than men voted. The equation is simple: more female voters=more female power, especially in battleground states where women outvote men in the hundreds of thousands.
Right. If Republicans want to be successful in presidential elections, it appears like one of the keys is making sure a candidate is highly favorable to female voters. This really should go without saying.