A New York professor with an impressive track record of predicting outcomes of presidential elections is literally putting his money on a Donald Trump victory in November.
Standing essentially alone among his fellow academics, Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth told “Fox and Friends” that his two-model formula suggests Trump is set to upset Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton — despite what the polls say.
Norpoth explained his methodology on Saturday:
“The model is called the primary model. So, I take into account primary elections, real elections, how the candidates are performing and I can track primaries for about 100 years, since 1912, so it’s quite a set of elections. And it usually turns out that the candidate that does better in his party's primaries or her party’s primaries beats the other guy who does less well.
The other one is what I call the ‘swing of the pendulum,’ the tendency after let’s say two terms of a White House party being in office, there is a change. And I can track that actually for a longer period of time, almost 200 years. That also gives a prediction that Republicans are favored this year.”
Just how accurate is the professor's model? He claims it has accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential race since 1912, with the exception of the 1960 election between Richard Nixon and John F. Kennedy.
A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Clinton leading Trump 44 percent to 40 percent, an improvement from previous polls.
Regardless, Norpoth went on to reveal that he’s so confident in his prediction that he has put down his own money on a Trump victory.
We'll know if he’s right in a matter of weeks.