A Recession May Hit Some U.S. Metros Worse Than Others

Mark Makela/Reuters

If the U.S. economy slips into a recession, homeowners in Riverside, California, will fare much worse than those in Rochester, New York, Seattle-based real estate brokerage Redfin predicts.

Redfin economists crunched a range of risk factors across 50 U.S. metro areas to estimate which markets were most vulnerable in a severe economic downturn. One key factor was how global trade affects the local economy, given the ongoing U.S. China trade war.

“If the U.S. enters a recession in the next two years, it will likely be caused by the global trade war,” Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather said. “U.S. industries that rely on exports, like the automotive industry and the agricultural industry, would be the most vulnerable and susceptible to layoffs.”

High loan-to-value ratios, volatile pricing and the share of households headed by someone 65 or older were also weighted in Redfin’s ranking.

Riverside has a lack of employment diversity and a high price-to-income ratio, Redfin found. On the other hand, Rochester’s $145,000 median home price is less than three times the median income, one of the lowest in the country.

Redfin’s analysis contained some surprising findings. San Francisco, where median home prices are 15 times the median income, ranks 35th most-vulnerable on the list of 50, since a high percentage of buyers paid for their homes with cash rather than with borrowed money that could be difficult to repay if they lost their jobs or faced other financial disruption.

The risk rankings are not meant to suggest that any particular housing market will necessarily decline, Redfin said, but the weakest could see slower growth.

The housing market collapse that occurred in the Great Recession was exceptional. In previous U.S. recessions home price declines were far more limited, and during the dot-com recession at the turn of the 21st century, U.S. home values overall increased.

(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Dan Grebler)

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WellHungChad
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I just thought I’d pee in the Genitally Confused One’s pity party punch a little more. The following article disputes the Genitally Confused One’s argument that the poor are at a hopeless disadvantage. 88% of millionaires today are self made and came from modest income backgrounds. Only 12% attained their.wealth through inheritance. The self made crowd worked hard/smart, saving and investing their money. It does NOT reference sitting in mom’s basement, trolling the IJR with nonsensical liberal socialism/anti-capitalism/anti-Christianity tripe and self pity. General, read the article and then go back to playing with your privates, rejoin your pity party, and… Read more »

WellHungChad
Member

>The Genitalia Confused General< "The “storm” in our economy is the 40% who struggle to pay their bills. Wealth disparity is NOT getting smaller. Approximately 15% of us are considered to be chronically “poor”. (You are not poor because you want to be poor. You are poor because of an historical lack of money.)" Sounds like more of a personal issue with our Genitally Confused General. You're not going to do ANYTHING about wealth disparity, but you CAN get off your ass and do something about your condition. You're not a wilting flower stuck in a pot, but you DO… Read more »

Otis
Member

Whew! It’s a good thing Super O created this improved economy or who knows where we would be…those who desire a recession are anti-American twits. In order to harm President Trump they want the country to suffer? That is wrong in so many ways.

Morte206
Member

Phyllis: Selfish and self-centered??? Hoping for a recession is flat out nuts. BUT also ignoring the signs of a global recession or denying that the U.S. would be affected by a global recession is also NUTS. Economic expansions and contractions are cyclical—they vary in length and intensity. Are you assuming D’s are taking the 2009 R stance of refusing to support stimulus in order to make Obama a 1 term POTUS by allowing the Great Recession to become the Great Depression II? The R’s already took the stimulus of tax cuts off the table by enacting them during an expansion,… Read more »

General Confusion
Member

It is clear that economics confuses a few here. Some aggregates do look good – employment numbers, steady GDP growth, for examples. These mask underlying serious problems, though. Just as Confused James sitting on his porch only seeing a light rain masks having a violent storm over his horizon. He doesn’t see it, so what does he care? The “storm” in our economy is the 40% who struggle to pay their bills. Wealth disparity is NOT getting smaller. Approximately 15% of us are considered to be chronically “poor”. (You are not poor because you want to be poor. You are… Read more »

James
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>WellHungChad<

Re: UNBIASED Employment information from the Bureau of Labor as of September 6, 2019:

Received an email via the White House.gov site which reported RECORD employment of 157,878,000 workers in August 2019.

Black unemployment hit a RECORD LOW of 5.5%. Hispanic unemployment remained LOW at 4.2%.

ALL of these figures are due to President TRUMP's leadership and eliminating the burdensome rules and regulations put into place to stifle the economy and growth by the Kenyan Marxist dictatorship.

James
Member

>Always Addled One< RE: MY comment about what's happening HERE in Northeast Florida. Did I say it was NOT happening anywhere else? I CAN READ and I DID READ the slanted article. The article was obviously written by a biased, anti-Trump Socialist (aren't they all?) who – like you – is trying to convince the World it should be your way or the highway; MEANING, most intelligent individuals do NOT buy your attempt to indoctrinate them into a historic failure – Socialism. BIASED "reporting" – better known as prattle – is what the Lefties do and this article is clear… Read more »

Screwtape
Member

Those hoping for a recession are selfish AND self-centered. Bill Maher, Reuters, the Genitally Confused don’t care WHO gets hurt so long as they get what they want.

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