Arizona Poll Puts Biden, Buttigieg Statistically Tied with Trump in General Election

Mike Segar/Reuters

A new poll out Monday suggests that Arizona may be facing its tightest presidential race in recent memory, with Democrats Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg in a dead heat against incumbent President Donald Trump.

The poll by OH Predictive Insights, conducted between December 3 and 4, puts the former vice president at 44 percent and the South Bend, Ind. mayor at 43 percent in a mock general election against Trump. The president is at 46 percent against Biden and 45 percent against Buttigieg.

“Depending on who Democrats select as their nominee, the Grand Canyon State may be in for one of the tightest presidential races in memory,” said Mike Noble, Chief of Research and Managing Partner of the Phoenix-based research company. “The biggest surprise is that of the steady rise of Buttigieg in the last six months – the big ‘MO’ is on the South Bend mayor’s side.”

The poll found that Biden’s fortunes in Arizona have been slipping lately, while those of Buttigieg have been rising steadily. Biden’s support has slipped four points since last quarter, when he lead in a race against Trump 49 percent to Trump’s 44 percent. Buttigieg, on the other hand, has risen nine points in the same period to come within one point of the president.

None of the other Democratic front-runners are shown to be anywhere close to beating Trump, with Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) down by six points against Trump, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg down by seven points, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) down by 13 points against the president.

Undecided voters remain a force, however, with those who say they haven’t settled on a candidate ranging from 10 percent in the case of a Biden-Trump matchup to 19 percent in a Sanders-Trump race.

“No Democrat has earned more than 47% in a presidential election here since LBJ in 1964, but given this President’s apparent ceiling, that might just be enough to win when November rolls around,” said Jacob Joss, an OHPI Data Analyst.

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