Views differ on whether prediction markets’ explosion in popularity will improve Americans’ lives.
Studies suggest gambling addiction — which reportedly rose over 60% since 2018 — rewires the brain to make people more impulsive. Sports betting is legal in 47 states as of February 2025, according to the American Gaming Association.
The combined trading volume of prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket rose from $5 billion in September 2025 to $24 billion in April 2026, Pew Research Center reported in May. Sports betting represented 80% of that volume, followed by cryptocurrency and political betting by 7% and 4%, respectively.
“Polymarket is neutral market infrastructure and has no economic stake in any market outcome. We do not take positions or make money based on results,” a Polymarket spokesperson told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
The spokesperson also said that resolutions on the global platform are handled through a decentralized oracle network called Universal Market Access, and that resolutions on the U.S. exchange follow the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)’s applicable Designated Contract Market rulebook.
Kalshi did not immediately respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.
Approximately 5.3% of North Americans have a gambling problem versus 1.9% worldwide, according to an October 2024 study. Additionally, calls to the Virginia Council on Problem Gambling’s helpline rose roughly 1,500% between 2019 and 2024, VCU Health News reported in September 2025.
Stop Predatory Gambling national director Les Bernal told the DCNF that online gambling is “gambling fentanyl.”
“Prediction market operators are contributing to the metastasizing epidemic of gambling addiction across the country, especially among young adults and teens, because they are online casino operators but under a different name,” Bernal said.
While the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 2018 that a 1992 federal law banning states from legalizing sports betting is unconstitutional, that has not stopped the government from trying to rein it back in.
The U.S. Senate voted unanimously to ban its members from trading on prediction markets on April 30. This came after Kalshi reported that it suspended and fined multiple political candidates for trading on their own campaigns.
Democratic Connecticut Sen. Richard Blumenthal and Republican Alabama Sen. Katie Britt introduced the Gambling Advertisement to Minors Enforcement (GAME) Act on June 5. The bipartisan bill aimed to ban companies from advertising sports betting toward minors.
One study found that 45% of young boys see gambling-related content online, with 59% saying such content appeared without them searching for it ahead of time, according to Blumenthal’s press release.
“Senator Britt remains deeply concerned about the rapid rise in sports gambling and prediction markets among minors—especially young boys,” a spokesperson from Britt’s office told the DCNF. “Data shows that individuals who begin gambling before the age of 18 are 50% more likely to be hooked for life.”
Britt’s office also told the DCNF that new research shows 33% of 21–44-year-olds report placing a sports bet before turning 21, and that two-thirds of Americans find the impacts of underage exposure to gambling concerning.
“That’s why Senator Britt has introduced legislation to prevent targeted advertising to minors from gambling and prediction market websites, which can serve as the gateway to dangerous habits that too often become crippling addictions,” the spokesperson said. “She believes our next generation is our greatest asset, and it’s our responsibility to take the necessary steps to protect them from online dangers whenever we can. Her current priority is building even more support and awareness for this legislation to get it passed in Congress and to the President’s desk.”
The CFTC proposed a new rule on June 10 banning prediction markets from trading on war, terror attacks, and assassinations. This proposal came a month after Democratic Minnesota Governor Tim Walz tried to ban prediction markets altogether within his state, which the CFTC soon sued to stop.
However, some argue prediction markets aren’t actually the problem.
“Things don’t have purposes, and different people have different purposes. For example, some people want to have fun with them. My hope has long been that we could better aggregate info on questions that matter,” George Mason University economics professor Robin Hanson told the DNCF when asked about the original purpose of prediction markets.
Hanson researched prediction markets since 1988, producing over 100 publications. He invented the Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule, which multiple prediction markets use to help users trade without needing a counterparty.
“People who wanted to have fun I believe are in fact actually having fun,” he said. “Many markets are actually aggregating and spreading info on questions that matter. My hopes go far beyond what we see today, but the current systems are lowering infrastructure costs, adding competition, setting legal precedents, and increasing customer familiarity. All of which will help my larger long term vision.”
“Our world today makes many bad decisions, because those decisions are poorly informed. Prediction markets really could improve that across a wide range of contexts. We should be indulgent to early versions if they are on a path to such later success,” Hanson added.
Another trend that some fear contributes to gambling addiction in the U.S. is certain elements of video games popular among children.
“Many video games have been spotlighted for using gambling mechanics to keep kids constantly using the game and to increase the amount of money they are losing. Roblox, Fortnite, NBA2K and Call of Duty are some of the many examples,” Bernal told the DCNF.
Around 20% of gamblers said loot boxes in video games were their first introduction to gambling, according to a 2022 study conducted in the United Kingdom. Over 80% started buying loot boxes before they turned 18.
“No single act of government inflicts more harm on the financial, social, and mental well-being of the people of this country than the cruel and oppressive institution of predatory gambling. It’s been an epic public policy failure by every measure,” Bernal said.
He added that not even China is “unleashing predatory gambling on its own people to make them broke and addicted.”
“If you add up all the financial losses that people are suffering to forms of commercialized gambling promoted by state and federal government – state lotteries, regional casinos, online gambling, sports betting, and prediction markets – the American people are on course to lose more than $1 trillion of personal wealth over the next five years,” he said. “That’s $300,000 every minute.”
Public officials from both political parties “often point to the rising price of everyday goods and services like eggs and gasoline,” Bernal noted, observing that “$300,000 a minute is a lot of eggs!”
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