The use of nuclear weapons is becoming increasingly likely as the Russian and Ukrainian militaries continue to blindly scramble up the escalation ladder through deep strikes into Russia, with alleged involvement from a NATO member country, military analysts warned on Monday.
Russian Ambassador to the UN Vassily Nebenzia has accused Latvia of planning to launch drones from its territory in direct attacks against the Russian Federation. Russia could attack Latvia if these plans became a reality, which could trigger a chain of events leading to the use of nuclear weapons, analysts said during a meeting at the Quincy Institute broadcast by CSPAN on Monday.
“There are proponents of, I guess we can call it ‘escalate to de-escalate,’ people like prominent Russian academic Sergei Karaganov, who believe Russia must drastically up the airstrike campaign against Ukraine, seriously consider the employment of low-yield nuclear weapons as a means of ending the war, and strike Western targets inside NATO,” Quincy Institute research fellow Mark Episkopos said during the meeting on Monday.
The Russian Embassy in Washington, the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington, the State Department, and NATO did not respond to a request for comment.
When the Daily Caller News Foundation asked the panel about the potential for nuclear weapons use in Europe, analysts on the panel laid out two scenarios where the Russians would employ tactical nuclear weapons.
“We’ve had warnings throughout this war. If we provide HIMARS , the Russians will retaliate in some dangerous way, ATACMS , F-16s, etcetera, etcetera, and in each case, the Russians have not retaliated against the West directly, and so the impression is created that the Russians will never retaliate against the West directly. It’s just too dangerous for them to do so,” director of grand strategy at the Quincy Institute George Beebe said during the panel. “The danger we’re facing is, there’s only one way we’ll know for sure. And that is, after the Russians retaliate directly.”
When President Donald Trump was asked about these strikes on Russian territory during the NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey, Trump said that he supported them, claiming it could lead to an end to the war.
“It’s an escalation, but it’s also an escalation that can help lead to an end,” Trump said at the Summit on Wednesday, according to a video uploaded by the White House.
“Kiev does not intend to limit itself to using the air corridors provided by the Baltic States. There are also plans to launch drones from territories of those countries,” Nebenzia said during a United Nations Security Council briefing on May 19. “ Zelenskyy has already convinced Riga to give consent to such an operation, assuring that it will be impossible to pinpoint the exact location of the launch. Soldiers from the Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) have already been deployed to Latvia. They are stationed at the Latvian military bases in Adazi, Selija, Lielvarde, Daugavpils, and Jekabpils.”
If the Russian military had hard proof that the Latvian military was launching drones at the Russian Federation, the likelihood of a direct Russian response would drastically increase. The Latvian government would likely declare NATO Article 5 in this scenario, which calls for a direct response from all NATO members to defend Latvia.
Latvian Public Service Media acknowledged and denied the allegations that “Latvia and the Baltic states are allowing Ukraine to use their airspace for drone attacks, and even to launch such attacks,” in an article on May 21.
The Latvian embassy did not provide a comment by the time of publication.
In an Article 5 situation, the Russian military may feel that it is facing an existential threat. Russian military doctrine states that in the event of an existential threat, it would be forced to respond with nuclear weapons, according to a recent amendment of the doctrine by the Kremlin.
“The Russian Federation considers nuclear weapons as a means of deterrence, the use of which is a last resort and a forced measure, and is making all the necessary efforts to reduce the nuclear threat and prevent deterioration of interstate relations that could trigger military conflicts, including nuclear ones,” according to a U.S. Naval War College analysis of Russian military doctrine.
“You’re now in a situation where whoever is the recipient of that attack is gonna invoke Article 5. And now the U.S. president has a real difficult decision to make,” Beebe said during the panel. “Is he going to preserve NATO, and preserve the fiction that Article 5 obligates a military response on the part of the United States, which in turn would risk direct war between the U.S. and Russian militaries. Or, are you going to say, ‘well, Article 5 is more important, NATO is more important, we’re going to respond militarily against Russia to defend this NATO member,’ in which case you are now in a very, very dangerous escalatory spiral that might be very difficult to control.”
At this point, the use of nuclear weapons would be a significant possibility, Beebe said.
“It’s only after we get into that kind of situation that the Russians might potentially use tactical nuclear weapons directly,” Beebe said during the meeting. “There is one other scenario where the tac-nukes might get used, that’s a Kaliningrad scenario, because Kaliningrad has so many tactical nuclear weapons stored there. If Kaliningrad were attacked conventionally, that would almost dictate the Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons. They’re not gonna allow those to fall into the hands of the west, or in some other scenario to be used … that almost would require the use of tactical nuclear weapons.”
Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, agreed with Beebe’s assessment.
“The paradox of this scenario is that it is actually increasingly likely, regardless of development of this war,” Snegovaya said. “As the war continues, it is a possibility, but even if the war stops, Russia has not fundamentally achieved its goals; there is still a lot of temptation to follow that scenario.”
“Yes, it certainly is plausible,” Heritage Foundation Visiting Fellow and former Pentagon official Steven Bucci told the DCNF in an email. “If Putin believes the U.S. would not participate with the Article 5. I think that would be a bad bet on his part.”
However, Bucci was skeptical of the nuclear option.
“I think NATO would respond punitively to any blatant strike against a member state,” Bucci told the DCNF. “It is highly unlikely that such a scenario will go nuclear. Russia knows how that will go for them. The only key to buying into this is if one believes Putin is literally suicidal. He is way out of line, but I do not think he would risk his own death and the destruction of Russia.”
“We have nothing to provide regarding hypothetical scenarios or speculative assessments,” a Department of War official told the DCNF. “The Department remains focused on maintaining a strong, credible deterrent alongside our Allies and partners.”
The Ukrainian military has recently intensified its long-range strikes into Russia, including strikes on Moscow.
Over 450 drones targeted Russia on Wednesday, Russian State media outlet TASS reported, citing the Russian Ministry of Defense. The mayor of Moscow, Sergey Sobyanin, said that at least 43 of these drones were downed en route to Moscow, ABC News reported, citing posts Sobyanin made on Telegram.
Recent Ukrainian drone attacks have been targeting Russian oil refineries, causing a gasoline shortage for civilians inside Russia, Reuters reported on June 24. Moscow’s oil refinery may be offline for six months after suffering damage from repeated drone attacks, the outlet reported, citing two industry sources
Putin called for the conscription of 261,000 Russian citizens throughout 2026, according to a Russian presidential decree from Dec. 29, 2025.
Casualty counts in the Russia-Ukraine war are highly disputed. Both the Russian and Ukrainian governments are reluctant to publish official figures of their own losses.
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said on Thursday that Russia had suffered roughly 1,414,820 personnel losses since the start of the full-scale invasion.
Russian state media TASS reported in February, citing Russian Defense Ministry data, that Ukraine had suffered more than 1.5 million casualties by the end of 2025 and roughly 65,000 more since the beginning of 2026.
“As President Trump has said countless times, this administration is committed to stopping the senseless killing and ending this war,” a U.S. State Department spokesperson told the DCNF.
“The President has a humanitarian heart and wants this war settled so the senseless killing ends,” a White House official told the DCNF. “The President and his team have worked very hard to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, and he remains optimistic that we’ll ultimately get a peace deal done.”
Escalations in the Russo-Ukrainian War have been ongoing for months. Ukraine and Russia exchanged salvos of missiles in May after an alleged attack on a dormitory in Russian-held territory.
Ukrainians launched an attack on a dormitory in Russian-held Luhansk on May 23, Reuters reported, citing Russia’s human rights commissioner, Yana Lantratova. The Russians retaliated for the dormitory attack by using an Oreshnik missile, 600 strike drones and 90 air- sea- and ground-launched missiles on May 24, The Associated Press reported, citing the Ukrainian Air Force.
The May 24 Russian attack on Kyiv was a direct escalation in the war, former senior researcher at the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs Philip Pilkington previously told the DCNF.
“Russia is clearly moving up the escalation ladder … that’s what that is,” Pilkington said. “The Russians could have done this strike a year ago, they could have done it 18 months ago, and they’re doing it now because they see it as climbing one rung up the escalation ladder.”
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