The midterm elections are just a few months away and Nate Silver released his forecast model Tuesday and predicted the Texas Senate seat would flip blue.
Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) lost in the primary to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who had President Donald Trumpâs endorsement but is considered the weaker candidate in the general election. This is is because of scandals, lawsuits, and controversies as well as a contentious divorce.
The Democratic nominee, state Rep. James Talarico, has had a slight lead in recent polls. Past Democrats running statewide in Texas, such as former Rep. Beto OâRourke (D-Texas), have had better poll results than they performed on Election Day.
Commentators have noted Paxtonâs negative attributed as a candidate, the downward drag of Trump and the GOPâs poor polling on key issues like immigration and the economy may give Talarico a chance.
Silver is now saying the Lone Star State could in fact flip blue.
In his 2026 midterm forecast model â which he has given the moniker âFLIPRâ â Silver rates Texas as âLean D.â
Silver acknowledged âDemocrats certainly have plenty of problems.â
These include a âfundraising crisisâ and battles between the partyâs establishment and the more progressive wing of the party.
However, Talaricoâs campaign is viewed as one of his top picks to flip blue, rating it as a 63% chance of pickup.
Silver ranked only two other statesâ chances of flipping blue higher than Texas. They are North Carolina, where former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is running against former chair of the RNC and North Carolina GOP Michael Whatley to succeed retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), and Maine, where Troy Jackson is challenging Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine).
Cooper had a 90% chance of defeating Whatley, according to Silverâs prediction; Jackson was given a 69% chance of replacing Collins.
Silverâs predictions for the overall majority control of the House and Senate favored Democrats. He gave them a 57.3% chance of regaining control of the Senate and a 86.6% for the House.