CNN chief national correspondent John King on Friday broke down how just a slight shift in electoral margins could secure a victory for either Republican nominee Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris.
President Joe Biden narrowly won Pennsylvania, 50% to 48.8%, by over 80,000 votes in 2020, King said. Trump secured slightly better results in 2016 when he won the state against former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, indicating that the former president could once again win Pennsylvania this November if his results in the suburbs improve.
“If you look at Philadelphia and the suburbs around it, about a third of the vote, close to 40%, will be cast right there,” King said. “You see, it’s all blue in the last campaign, right? [Biden] narrowly won this state, the challenge for Harris is in a place like Swarthmore, can she run it up. And then in the other suburbs, can she just be competitive? And let’s flip that. Donald Trump won this state in 2016 because he did a little better. He did just a little better.”
In Chester County, an overwhelmingly Democratic county, Trump secured 43.2% of the vote in 2016 but only received 40% of the vote in 2020, King said. The former president only needs to perform slightly better in the suburban areas in order to secure an electoral victory in Pennsylvania.
“Look at Donald Trump in Chester County, he gets 40% in 2020. You go back to 2016, he gets 43%. Those margins matter,” King said. “So is Donald Trump better in the suburbs? He’s not gonna win these suburbs, [if he is] a little better like he was in 2016, then he can win the commonwealth of Pennsylvania. If Harris can match Biden’s numbers and keep Trump down, then she wins the biggest prize of all.”
King noted that certain voters who swapped their support from Trump to Biden are backing the former president again due to policy issues, particularly inflation. Harris could win the state if she earns the votes of moderate Republicans who do not want to back Trump.
Trump holds a slight advantage, 0.5%, over Harris in Pennsylvania as of late October, according to RealClear polling averages. Biden led in Pennsylvania by 5 points on Nov. 1, 2020, according to FiveThirtyEight polling.
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