If one is looking for a sign former President Donald Trump will return to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., one data reporter has three.
CNN Harry Enten, a senior data reporter at CNN, revealed the signs that point to a Trump victory come Nov. 5.
The signs are threefold — the dissatisfaction among voters with the Biden administration; voters not being happy with the direction the country is going; and the number of voter registrations among Republicans, Fox News reported.
“If Republicans win come next week – Donald Trump wins come next week, the signs all along will have been obvious,” Enten said Wednesday morning.
The fact Vice President Kamala Harris is part of the current administration — and only 28% believe the country is going in the right direction — has dimmed her chances of winning, Enten said.
Since 1980, the average rate of Americans who think the country is on the right track and the incumbent loses is 25%. The same scenario with the incumbent winning is 42%.
That 28% mark is a big deal.
“It doesn‘t look anything – anything – like this 42%… So, the bottom line is, very few Americans think the country is on the right track at this particular point. It tracks much more with when the incumbent party loses than when it wins,” Enten said.
Enten explained that historically, a party that has a president with a low net approval rating will likely not be succeeded by a candidate from the same party.
“So, I went back and I looked. Okay, was this successor of the same party when the president’s net approval rating was negative at this point, which Joe Biden‘s most definitely is? He‘s 15 points underwater,” Enten said.
For example, George W. Bush had a negative net approval rating in 2008 and was succeeded by Democratic President Barack Obama.
The same held true when Lyndon B. Johnson, a Democrat, was succeeded by Richard Nixon, a Republican.
Also, Harry S. Truman, a Democrat, was followed by Republican Dwight Eisenhower.
“Harry S. Truman – his approval rating was in the 20s, if not the upper teens. Did a Democrat succeed Harry S. Truman in ’52? My memory – no,” he said.
So, he said, it is not likely for Harris to break the trend.
“So the bottom line is for Kamala Harris to win, she’d have to break history, be a Democrat to succeed Joe Biden when Biden’s approval rating is way underwater at this point,” Enten said.
The third sign, according to Enten, was how Republican voter registrations have increased in swing states
“So Republicans are putting more Republicans in the electorate, the Democratic number versus the Republican number has shrunk,” Enten said.
He summarized his findings by stating, “We would look at the right direction being very low, Joe Biden’s approval rating being very low and Republicans really registering numbers. You can’t say you weren’t warned.”
