Historically Accurate Election Model Finds Trump Will ‘Steamroll the Competition’ in 2020

Yuri Gripas/Reuters

President Donald Trump looks poised to win a second term by a landslide, according to a new report released by Moody’s Analytics.

A new report by Moody’s Analytics, which has correctly predicted all but one presidential election since 1980, says that Trump could easily win the 2020 presidential election by an even larger margin than his victory in 2016.

The models found that Trump will win either 289, 332, or 351 Electoral College votes in 2020. The results are based on how consumers feel about the economy and their economic situation, stock market gains, and prospects for unemployment.

Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and co-author of the report, told CNBC “It’s all about turnout,” adding that if Democrats are not energized and there is low turnout, Trump will “steam roll the competition.”

Zandi added that if the turnout “is the same a year from now, or roughly, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good.”

Of the three models, Trump fairs best with the ‘pocketbook model,’ which focuses on how people feel about their personal finances. In that model he wins 351 electoral votes to the generic Democrat’s 187 votes. The report emphasizes that “record turnout is vital to a Democratic victory.”

In the ‘unemployment model’ Trump wins 332 electoral votes to the Democrat’s 206, and in the ‘stock mark model’ he wins 289 electoral votes to the Democrat’s 249.

The new report was well received by Trump who shared it in a tweet saying:

“Looks good to me!”

What do you think?

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Betsy Lawson

Vote Trump 2020. Make sure the clown car of Dems just keeps driving back to the circus. Do not forget to pick up crazy Clinton, the sickening Squad and Botox Betty herself, Nancy P. Beep beep.


I am not taking any interest in polls rather I will be casting my vote just to be on the safe side…

WP Taylor

The one election it got wrong was the one Trump was in. Why do we think it will be correct in another election Trump is in? Don’t get cocky, and don’t just remember what Yogi Berra said about games being over, act on it.


>Jess Sain<

Interesting you should bring up the Kenyan Marxist in response to GC's blather. Saw a poll today (10/17/2019) in which the question was asked: Would you vote for an "Obama" third term?" Response was: 9,569 – Yes. 116,545 – NO. Guess Barry did all the damage he could do during his 8 abysmal years and enough was too much. WHY wasn't he impeached for being an inept, apologist, America/American hater, class divider, race baiter and all his lies over the years? WORST "President" ever.


Appears the fake squaw will be leading the pack of donkeys against Trump in 2020. IF polls are to be believed this early (or even the day before Election Day), latest Newsmax poll shows Trump at 81% versus Warren at 16%; Neither candidate at 1%. Looks like another landslide for a great POTUS.

Jess Sain
Jess Sain

Never mind the fact that they have fielded 12 complete morons who couldn’t balance a teacup on their heads much less a checkbook. Bernie’s ‘plan’ would cost 100 trillion, they all operate on the OPM principal. Once other people are milked dry, what then?


Anyone with a working brain can see that the popularity of Trump far surpasses what these fake polls claim. That of course leaves out the entire staff and management of The NY Times, Washington Post, CNN and MSNBC. Not many working brains there.





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