Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s national polling numbers took a nosedive on Tuesday.
Warren, who had been leading the field in an October 24th Quinnipiac poll with 28 percent of voters supporting her candidacy, saw her numbers drop to just 14 percent in the same poll taken this week. Former Vice President Joe Biden moved into first place with 24 percent of the vote, up from 21 percent, and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg moved up to second place in the polls with 16 percent of the vote.
Voters in the poll were asked if the Democratic primary were being held today, which of the current candidates they’d vote for. Warren saw the biggest change in her polling numbers of any candidate, and it comes as the Iowa caucuses are just two months away.
“Biden is back on top of the pack but now there is a 3-way race for second. Buttigieg has broken into the top tier, apparently at the expense of Warren, who has taken a dive after being hammered for being too far left on health care and other issues,” Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy said.
New Q-poll has good news for Biden/Buttigieg, terrible news for Warren, flat for others.— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) November 26, 2019
Biden: 24% (+3)⁰
Buttigieg: 16% (+6)
Warren: 14% (-14) ⁰
⁰Sanders: 13% (-2)⁰
Harris: 3% (-2) ⁰
Klobuchar: 3% (-)⁰
Yang: 2% (+1)⁰
Booker: 2% (+1)
⁰Castro: 2% (+1)⁰
Gabbard: 1% (-)
As Warren’s numbers in the primary poll fell, so too did voter’s perception of her policy ideas and Medicare-for-All, an issue she has tried to make central to her campaign. Medicare-for-All enjoyed support from 43 percent of Americans who said it was a good idea in a March 26th, 2019 poll. But just 36 percent say it’s a good idea now, and 52 percent say it’s a bad idea. In October, 40 percent of voters also said Warren has the best policy ideas. In the latest poll, that number was down to 23 percent.
According to polling expert Nate Silver, most of Warren’s “erosion” on the question of her policy ideas came from moderates, who have apparently stopped supporting her plans in large numbers.
Dave Wasserman, another polling expert, said on Twitter that the newest from Quinnipiac sets up the possibility for a contested Democratic convention.
“Those dismissing the possibility of a contested Dem convention do so at their own peril,” Wasserman said. “It’s going to evolve between now and Iowa, but four candidates in double digits (and no one else that close) is pretty much a recipe for… a contested convention.”