Warren, who has struggled at times with gaining support from black voters, has seen her numbers rise over the last few months. In March, she had less than 0.5% support from black Democrats, according to Quinnipiac. In the latest poll from October, that number rose to 20%.
The gains are a significant piece of news for Warren’s campaign. No Democrat has won a nomination without the majority of the black vote since 1992. And in 2020, black voters are expected to represent a quarter of the ballots in the primary race. On the campaign trail, Warren has made a point to discuss intersectional issues involving race, feminism and the challenges people of color face in today’s America.
Alexis Crawford was an incredible woman with a bright future ahead of her. Black women and girls, especially black trans women, face disproportionately higher rates of violence and homicide, often with impunity. This must stop. https://t.co/dajcedB91f— Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) November 15, 2019
While Biden still holds a strong lead amongst black voters, there is some vulnerability. Axios tracked nine Quinnipiac polls from March until October, and at the end of October found that Biden still had 43% of the black vote, which is about where he started. The issue, though, is that he isn’t making gains and is yet to win over young black voters.
In the latest Quinnipiac poll, Warren had opened up a lead on Biden with 28% of the vote among Democratic and independent voters, compared to Biden’s 21%. If her gains with black voters keep trending in the same direction, she could become the undisputed frontrunner in the race.
“She’s the only one who consistently leaves the room with more support than whatever she came in with,” Cliff Albright, co-founder of the Black Voters Matter Fund, told Axios. “The exact opposite is the case for Joe Biden.”