The Crystal Ball has been a go-to source of election predictions. Larry Sabato, a professor at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics has established quite the track record for national elections, including House, Senate, Gubernatorial, and Presidential elections.
The U. of Virginia describes Sabato’s prediction success rate as follows, starting with 2006:
The Crystal Ball has been a leader in accurately predicting elections since its inception. In 2004, theCrystal Ball notched a 99% accuracy rate in predicting all races for House, Senate, Governor and each state’s Electoral College outcome. In 2006 the Pew Research Center and the Pew Charitable Trusts’ Project for Excellence in Journalism recognized the Crystal Ball as the leader in the field of political predictors, noting that the site “came closer than any other of the top ten potential predictors this cycle.”
In 2008 and in 2010:
2008 was yet another banner year, as the Crystal Ball came the closest of any national prognosticator in predicting the results of the presidential race, while achieving a 100% accuracy rating by correctly predicting the result of every single gubernatorial and Senate race across the country. In 2010, the Crystal Ball once again led the field, as the first to forecast a solid Republican takeover of the House. The Crystal Ball was also the only prognosticator to offer state legislative predictions, correctly predicting months in advance that Republicans would pick up 500+ state legislators and a dozen or more state legislative chambers.
And in 2012:
The Crystal Ball continued its record of success in 2012. In July, our election model projected a close popular vote with an Obama victory of about one percentage point. When others were predicting a Romney victory, we forecast a substantial Obama margin in the Electoral College, and ultimately missed just two states. We also made picks in every House, Senate and gubernatorial race and, combined with our Electoral College projections, had a 97% accuracy rate in forecasting the election.
Now, the highly touted prognosticator is releasing his prediction for the 2016 election, just three months away from November. Here is Sabato’s election map, a complete landslide victory:
The electoral college count of Hillary Clinton’s 347 to Donald Trump’s 191 would be slightly below Mitt Romney’s 2012 margin of defeat: 206-332. It would be an improvement over John McCain’s performance in 2008, however, when he registered only 173 electoral college votes to Barack Obama’s 365.
Of significance is Sabato’s prediction that Clinton will take the swing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Virginia, Michigan and Florida.
There’s a first time for everything, and in this uncharacteristic election year, the renowned predictor could be wrong. The third party candidacy of Gary Johnson could be a factor out West, such as in Nevada, and America is yet to see Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton clash on the presidential debate stage.