Riding the Wave — Five Districts Likely to Turn Blue This Midterms

Obama with Democrats

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) predicted with the utmost confidence this week that her party would take back the House in this year’s midterm elections, and for the most part, the polls are in her favor. Here’s a closer look at five Democrats who are predicted to flip their districts in Tuesday’s midterm election.

Iowa 1st District – Abby Finkenauer

Not only is this Iowa district set to flip blue, but it’s also looking at booting out its incumbent: Republican Rep. Rod Blum. The House Ethics Committee is currently investigating Blum for not reporting his private business on required forms, according to the Des Moines Register.

At 28, Finkenauer could become the youngest woman ever elected to Congress. FiveThirtyEight estimates Finkenauer has a 95.3 percent chance of winning on Tuesday.

California 49th District – Mike Levin

Rep. Darrell Issa has represented this San Diego district since 2003. However, Issa only won his 2016 bid by 2,348 votes, according to the San Diego Union-Tribune. He’s not testing his luck this time around — Issa decided not to run in 2018.

Now, Democrat Mike Levin has his eye on the open seat, and FiveThirtyEight is giving him a 95.8 percent chance of winning against Republican Diane Harkey.

Levin captured the attention of both former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Joe Biden, who endorsed and campaigned for the Democrat this year.

New Jersey 2nd District – Jeff Van Drew

The Democrats’ “blue wave” is tinted red with New Jersey candidate Jeff Van Drew. While many are seeing a rise in progressivism within the party, Van Drew represents a different kind of Democrat.

According to Politico, the candidate has voted against gay marriage and raising the minimum wage in his past lawmaking rolls. He also has an A rating from the NRA. But his center-left views might be what it takes to flip the district which has been represented by a Republican since 1995.

FiveThirtyEight gives Van Drew a generous 97.7 percent chance of winning over Republican challenger Seth Grossman.

Arizona 2nd District – Ann Kirkpatrick

Ann Kirkpatrick is looking at representing Arizona in the House for the second time. Previously, she served as a congresswoman for Arizona’s 1st District, and her name recognition is giving her a boost above Republican candidate Lea Marquez Peterson. Kirkpatrick has a 96.4 percent chance of winning, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Pennsylvania 5th District – Mary Gay Scanlon

Pennsylvania is looking at a couple of solid “blue wave” flips on Tuesday, but none are as certain as the state’s 5th District, which FiveThirtyEight is giving Democrat Mary Gay Scanlon more than a 99.9 percent chance of winning.

The shift to Scanlon may be in reaction to the sexual harassment scandal that resulted in Republican Rep. Patrick Meehan stepping down in May. Either way, this district that was rocked by the #MeToo movement will have a woman representative — the Republican challenger is Pearl Kim.