This Gallup Poll Has Been Right for Decades — It’s Predicting Republicans Will Keep Their House Majority

Kevin McCoy/Wikimedia Commons

On Tuesday, Gallup released a decades-old poll that indicated other polls were wrong in predicting Democrats would take control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections.

According to the poll, 50 percent of Americans believed that Republicans would maintain their majority, whereas 44 percent predicted Democrats would take control as other polls indicated.

As IJR previously noted, nationwide polling averages indicated that Democrats would gain a slight majority in the House while staying in the minority in the Senate.

But as Gallup pointed out, this particular poll had been right about midterm results in each of the 10 election years it was conducted between 1946 and 2014.


When the poll focused on likely voters, however, it found that the majority (54 percent) said they would cast their ballots for Democratic candidates.

Last-minute polling showed a mix of Republican and Democratic leads in some key races, although both FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics predicted that Democrats would take the House of Representatives.

Both of those sites, however, joined a long list of others in inaccurately predicting that former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton would defeat President Donald Trump in 2016.

To drive voter turnout, the Trump administration seemed to bank on the president’s economic record and tough stance on immigration. In an op-ed published by Fox News on Monday, the president reminded Americans of his accomplishments and warned that a Democratic Congress would bring economic ruin.

“If House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., take control of Congress, they will drag America back into the economic abyss we struggled so hard to climb out of,” he wrote.

He also attempted to make the migrant caravan an issue, as polling showed Republicans ranking immigration as one of their top issues. Voters overall considered health care their most important issue, something the president has controversially impacted through a series of executive actions dismantling the Affordable Care Act.

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