With just two weeks remaining until Election Day, the Senate battleground map is shifting further in Republicans’ favor as the GOP’s prospects of defeating a vulnerable Democratic senator have increased.
The latest shakeup, driven by a fresh rating from the Cook Political Report on Monday, has moved the Pennsylvania Senate race, featuring Republican Dave McCormick against incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss-up” marking a significant shift for Democrats who are already under siege in several key states. Republicans are on track to possibly secure 51 seats as the “Blue Wall” states are proving to be increasingly competitive for Democrats.
Wisconsin recently moved into the toss up category, making it the GOP’s next strongest opportunity for a flip, the report added. Michigan, while appearing more secure in public surveys, remains much closer according to internal polling.
Four key races listed in the “Toss Up” column will likely dictate the extent of a Republican majority, Cook Political stated.
Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester is trailing to Republican Tim Sheehy, which alongside the expected GOP pickup in West Virginia, where independent West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin‘s decision not to run has opened the door for a Republican victory by Gov. Jim Justice, the path to a Senate majority for the GOP appears increasingly viable, Cook Political reported.
With two weeks to go, two new Senate CPR Race Rating changes:#PASEN: Lean D to Toss Up#NESEN: Likely R to Lean R
Read @JessicaTaylor‘s latest: https://t.co/eTW8zC1aCX
— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) October 21, 2024
Averages show Casey with a lead of less than two points, well within the margin of error, according to RealClearPolitics average of polls. Beyond Pennsylvania, Republicans are eyeing Ohio, where GOP challenger Bernie Moreno has gained momentum against Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown, Cook Political stated.
Former pollster for Bill Clinton, Doug Schoen, previously voiced concerns on Vice President Kamala Harris’s ability to keep key Democratic states in the upcoming election. Schoen pointed to growing weaknesses in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, traditionally considered part of the Democratic “blue wall.”
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