In Losing Legal Battles over Census, Trump May Win Political War

REUTERS/Brian Snyder

The Trump administration has few realistic options to get a citizenship question onto next year’s census, but by keeping the issue in the public eye it could still trigger an undercount of residents in Democratic-leaning areas, legal and political experts told Reuters.

Constant media coverage linking citizenship and census forms could scare undocumented immigrants away from responding and rally U.S. President Donald Trump’s base to participate, they said. That, in turn, would help redraw voting districts across the country in favor of his Republican party, encouraging the president to pursue a legal battle that he has little chance of winning.

The latest parlay came on Sunday evening, when the U.S. Department of Justice installed a new team of lawyers to handle the last iterations of litigation that has been going on for more than a year.

“Even if the question is (taken) off, if people are tweeting as if it may be a real possibility, it continues to raise fears and depress the count,” said Thomas Wolf, a lawyer who focuses on census issues at the Brennan Center for Justice.

The U.S. Constitution requires the government to count all residents – whatever their legal status – every 10 years. The information collected becomes the basis for voting maps and distributing some $800 billion in federal funds each year.

It is illegal for the Census Bureau to share information about individuals with law enforcement or immigration authorities. But the idea of asking residents about citizenship status has nonetheless stoked fears that the survey would become a tool for the Trump administration’s hardline immigration policies.

The president and his allies have said it is important to know about citizenship status, and characterized the question as something that should not draw controversy.

“So important for our Country that the very simple and basic ‘Are you a Citizen of the United States?’ question be allowed to be asked in the 2020 Census,” the president tweeted on July 4.

A Reuters poll earlier this year also showed 66% of Americans support its inclusion.

But demographers, advocacy groups, corporations and even the Census Bureau’s own staff have said the citizenship question threatens to undermine the survey.

Communities with high immigrant and Latino populations could have low response rates. Researchers have estimated that more than 4 million people out of a total U.S. population of some 330 million may not participate.

That would benefit non-Hispanic whites, a core part of Trump’s support, and help Republicans gain seats in Congress and state legislatures, critics have said.

The question seemed dead in June, when the Supreme Court blocked it, saying the administration had given a “contrived” rationale for its inclusion.

However, the high court left open the possibility that the administration could offer a plausible rationale. Department of Justice lawyers said on Friday that they were exploring other explanations. Trump also said he may try to force it into the survey through an executive order.

Legal experts immediately slapped down the ideas. It will be hard to convince justices that a new explanation is not also contrived, and an executive order would not override the Supreme Court decision or undo other court orders blocking the citizenship question, they said.

“There is nothing talismanic about an executive order,” said a statement from Thomas Saenz, the president and general counsel of MALDEF, a Latino rights group pursuing one of the cases against the administration. “Our government is not a dictatorship.”

Trump also said on Friday that although census forms are already being printed, the government could later produce “an addendum.”

It is not clear how that might work, but census experts said it would be an unprecedented disruption to a process that has been in motion for years.

“Any suggestion that on a moment’s notice the Census Bureau could add an extra piece of paper with an additional question to a census that it has been planning literally for a decade demonstrates a breathtaking ignorance of what it takes to pull off a census,” said Terri Ann Lowenthal, a census consultant.

An addendum would also likely be challenged in courts for running afoul of various administrative laws.

On Friday, the American Civil Liberties Union filed a motion https://www.aclu.org/legal-document/motion-amend to prevent the citizenship question from being added.

In the meantime, attention surrounding the legal debacle may already be hurting the census and helping Trump achieve his goals, said Jessica Levinson, a professor at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles.

“The longer he has this conversation, the worse it is for an accurate census count,” she said.

(Reporting by Tom Hals in Wilmington, Delaware; Additional reporting by Lawrence Hurley in Washington; Editing by Lauren Tara LaCapra and Rosalba O’Brien)

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Wayne Gadow
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Pres. Trump is to the Democrazies, as the Road Runner is to Wily Coyote….Beep-Beep!

Screwtape
Member

(because IJR replies do not work) James, I agree and also follow AND support Judicial Watch. Gee, why would anyone oppose voter ID or a valid census with a citizenship question? It’s too damn obvious that this allows voter fraud, multiple voting, etc. Ignore the excuses of “racism”, exclusion, etc. How badly do you want to vote? More than getting cable TV or welfare/food stamps? I’ve always believe that IF one wants to vote then it is incumbent on YOU not the system to ensure your right to do so. q.v. the Battle of Athens, GA where WWII vets literally… Read more »

Screwtape
Member

Even if he “loses” on the census issue, Trump wins because he’s further exposing the unspoken “open borders” ideology of the Dims/Left AND how little they regard actual Americans. Blame America First! Consider how many words the Dim candidates spent on benefits for illegals and the useless*/indigent. Now compare that with how many they spent on Americans or citizens. I rest my case. *useless is relative since many can be reduced to essential nutrients through hydrolization. The remainders can be used as fertilizer, i.e. K, Ca, P, which should be familiar to any gardener. Inhuman you say? What’s your stance… Read more »

Screwtape
Member

The Enumeration Clause calls for numbers of residents, but is meaningless without accuracy and definition.

Sanctuary states/cities want the raw # for representation and federal monies. BUT they don’t want the citizenship question because they then cannot hide illegal votes. Consider the disparities between registered voters/actual votes in places like LA, Scat Francisco, NM, IL, etc. “Gee you had more voters than you have citizens.” Check the illegals and cemetaries.

Screwtape
Member

Reuters shows it partisan shtick by saying Trump lacks “realistic” means. A la Nike, he could “just do it” (which they stole from executed murderer Gary Gilmore) via open defiance (q.v. Andrew Jackson’s “let them enforce it”) or executive order (see the Jackson precedent). There is no need for an “addendum”. Leftist heads will explode when they see the tyrant they wanted is the one that they got. bonus: it will feed the TDS and Dim congress for months/years. The SC’s excuse is a quibbling demand that he explain himself, despite a 160-year precedent (the question was included through the… Read more »

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