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Polling Guru Nate Silver Forecasts Trump Has a Nearly 66% Chance of Winning the Election

Polling Guru Nate Silver Forecasts Trump Has a Nearly 66% Chance of Winning the Election

June 26, 2024
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Polling Guru Nate Silver Forecasts Trump Has a Nearly 66% Chance of Winning the Election

by Bradley Cortright
June 26, 2024 at 3:31 pm
in Featured, News
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Polling Guru Nate Silver Forecasts Trump Has a Nearly 66% Chance of Winning the Election

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - JUNE 22: Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump walks offstage after speaking at a campaign rally at the Liacouras Center on June 22, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Earlier today Trump delivered remarks at the Faith and Freedom Road to Majority conference in Washington DC. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

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Former President Donald Trump has the advantage in the 2024 election, according to poll expert Nate Silver.

On Wednesday, Silver — who founded the data analytics site FiveThirtyEight — posted on X that the election forecasting model he created is up and running.

“The model is ready,” he wrote, adding, “And here’s our headline: the presidential election isn’t a toss-up.”

The model is ready. 😬
And here's our headline: the presidential election isn't a toss-up.https://t.co/u8HuCo4lPU

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 26, 2024

In a post on his Substack, the “Silver Bulletin,” Silver elaborated in the detail the challenges that go into building such a model. He explained the factors in the election and the data the model is analyzing to make its forecasts.

The model predicts Trump has 65.7% chance of winning the Electoral College, while Biden has a 33.7%.

Meanwhile, it gives Biden a 51% cane of winning the popular vote and Trump a 49% chance.

Nate Silver's first forecast of this election season gives Donald Trump a 66% chance of winning at the moment.https://t.co/kMOSPZSDRO pic.twitter.com/Zf2674lqx8

— Jesse Singal (@jessesingal) June 26, 2024

In terms of how many electoral votes the two will win, the model gives Biden 250 votes, while Trump receives 287.

The model, while it factors in other data than simple polling numbers, is not too radically different from other models. FiveThirtyEight’s model gives Biden a slight edge over Trump.

Meanwhile, its polling tracker finds the race is a dead heat.

Additionally, RealClearPolitics’ average of polls finds Trump has a 1.3 point lead over Biden.

Tags: 2024 ElectionDonald TrumpJoe Bidenpolitics
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Bradley Cortright

Bradley Cortright

IJR, Senior Writer He's written for Independent Journal Review since 2019.

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