Just a few weeks ago, it seemed as though Democrats were in a strong position to keep control of the Senate.
Gas prices were decreasing and the abortion debate seemed to be energizing Democratic voters. FiveThirtyEight gave Democrats a 7-in-10 chance of keeping the Senate at the time.
But quite suddenly, it appears the political winds have shifted back in the Republicans’ direction. And FiveThirtyEight’s model now gives Democrats a little less than a 6-in-10 chance of keeping the chamber.
And National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Rick Scott (R-Fla.) is voicing optimism that Republicans could not only flip control of the chamber but walk away from the election with a decent majority.
During a get-out-to-vote event with Senate candidate Rep. Ted Budd (N.C.) Scott said, “It starts right here, we’re going to get 52 Republican senators, we have to win here,” according to The Hill.
He added, “I think we can get 53, 54, 55.”
“The energy is on our side. People are fed up with the Biden agenda,” he insisted.
In order to get to 55 seats, Republicans would need to hold onto all their current seats — including in states with tight races such as Wisconsin, Ohio, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Polls show the Republican candidate tied or leading in Wisconsin, Ohio, and North Carolina.
However, Democratic candidate John Fetterman is leading Republican Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania but polls appear to show that race is narrowing.
Nevada Republican Seate candidate Adam Laxalt is in a dead heat with incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto. Meanwhile, the race for Senate in Arizona between incumbent Mark Kelly (D) and Blake Masters (R) also appears to be tightening. And in Georgia, Republican Herschel Walker trails Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) by 3.7-points.
If Republicans keep the competitive seats they currently hold and pick up Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, they would have a 53-seat majority. New Hampshire was seen as a potential pick-up opportunity for Republicans. But polls show Don Bolduc (R) trailing Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) by 7.8-points. If Republicans managed to pull off an upset in New Hampshire, they would still need one more seat to get to a 55-seat majority.
The Hill notes that Sen. Michael Bennet (D) is seen as the next most vulnerable incumbent Democrat. However, FiveThirtyEight shows him leading Republican Joe O’Dea by 8.9-points. Scott also said he thinks Democrat senators in traditionally deep-blue Washington and Connecticut could be at risk too.
Starting in late September, it began to feel as though the energy around the midterms was shifting toward the Republicans. But some polling experts, such as FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver, pushed back on the notion that there was some massive improvement for Republicans.
The polls are finally seeming to match what felt like a shift in momentum toward the Republicans. And the Senate does look more competitive again.
Still, a 55-seat majority would really require Republicans to run the table. It’s not entirely out of the question, but it would be a tall order.
