If the current trends hold, Democrats can expect a thumping in the 2022 midterm elections.
And the election in Texasâ 34th Congressional district may have just given them even more reason for concern.
The state held a special election for the district in the wake of Rep. Filemon Velaâs (D) resignation in March. The New York Times notes that in the districtâs 10-year history, residents there have never sent a Republican to Congress.
And in the Rio Grande Valley, no Republican candidate has been elected in 150 years.
But, on Tuesday, Republican Mayra Flores beat out Democrat Dan Sanchez with 51% of the vote, clearing the 50% requirement to avoid a run-off.
Flores raised 16 times the amount of Sanchez and, along with her allies, spent over $1 million on television ads.
Her victory makes her the first Mexican-born Congresswoman.
âThis historic win will bring back God to the halls of Congress! This win is for the people who were ignored for so long! This is a message that the establishment will no longer be tolerated! We have officially started the red wave,â she tweeted Tuesday night.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted that Flores was the first Republican he voted for.
However, due to redistricting, she will have to face Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D), who currently represents a neighboring district, in November.
Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report noted that the district Flores will run in in November is seen as much more favorable for Democrats.
âThis special election was held under the old lines, which are Biden +4. In November, sheâll face Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D) in the redrawn , which is Biden +15,â he explained.
Wasserman also pointed out that there was a really low turnout in this district.
One potential bright spot for Flores is that she carried the most populous county in the district, which President Joe Biden won by 13 points in 2020.
Flores is sure to face an uphill battle to stay in Congress. But the good news for her is that by being in Congress, sheâll have some time to develop a record. Even if that record is just voting against the Democratsâ agenda, with several polls showing Bidenâs support among Hispanic voters plunging, that probably canât hurt her chances.
Sheâll also definitely get a lot of attention and energy from her victory, especially from conservative media, and a chance to build up her profile and rake in campaign donations.
Whether or not that will translate into a victory in November is yet to be seen. However, Politico notes that the âdynamics have to be worrying to Democratsâ as it points out Sanchez cast himself as a pro-life and âconservative Democrat,â and it wasnât enough to keep the seat in Democratsâ hands.
Regardless of what happens in this race in November, Floresâ victory on Tuesday is likely to fuel some concerns among Democrats about the shift of Hispanic voters away from their party and toward Republicans.