The 2018 midterm elections could potentially change the party majority in the House of Representatives, which would cause a complete shift in the leadership and interests of the House.
Party divides have become wider in recent years due to the past two party-defining presidents and issues that have caused national controversy. While Congress should work together to help the American people, the majority party does have a huge impact on which laws will make it through.
Seats Needed to Keep Majority:
Democrats must flip 24 seats in order to regain the majority in the House. While this seems like a large and unachievable number, many polls and forecasts show there is a possibility that this could happen.
While it may be possible, flipping that number of seats in order to reclaim the House has only happened twice for Democrats and three times for Republicans in the past 50 years, according to The New York Times.
Toss-up House Seats:
The most popular projection reports all consider different races to be toss-ups. However, there are many races in which candidates are extremely close to each other in polls. These poll results make it extremely hard to determine a potential outcome, even with all of the data.
Here are the races whose candidates are polling close together:
Most Likely to Flip:
According to the three most popular polls, there are six seats that are expected to flip Democrat. These are all races that should be observed to understand the change in public opinion.
The districts most likely to flip are New Jersey’s 2nd District, Florida’s 27th, Arizona’s 2nd, California’s 49th, New Jersey’s 11th, and Virginia’s 10th.
Here is a breakdown of who is running in each race and their chances of winning, according to FiveThirtyEight.
New Jersey 2:
New Jersey’s 2nd District has only a one in 60 chance of staying red, with candidate Jeff Van Drew given a 98.4 percent chance of winning.
New Jersey 11:
Jennifer Wexton is showing the advantage with an 89.2 percent chance of winning. Barbara Comstock is only given a 10.8 chance.
What’s at Stake:
What will really determine the election results is the current national opinion of Republicans and the amount of voter turnout for both parties. Both Republicans and Democrats must mobilize their supporters and encourage them to go to the polls.