Republicans Need to Keep Dems From Flipping 24 House Seats to Stay in Control — It’s Coming Down to These Races

The 2018 midterm elections could potentially change the party majority in the House of Representatives, which would cause a complete shift in the leadership and interests of the House.

Party divides have become wider in recent years due to the past two party-defining presidents and issues that have caused national controversy. While Congress should work together to help the American people, the majority party does have a huge impact on which laws will make it through.

Seats Needed to Keep Majority:

Democrats must flip 24 seats in order to regain the majority in the House. While this seems like a large and unachievable number, many polls and forecasts show there is a possibility that this could happen.

All 435 seats are up for re-election, and many seats are not expected to flip. However, there are multiple toss-up and flip races that may determine how close the majority race will be.

While it may be possible, flipping that number of seats in order to reclaim the House has only happened twice for Democrats and three times for Republicans in the past 50 years, according to The New York Times.

Toss-up House Seats:

The most popular projection reports all consider different races to be toss-ups. However, there are many races in which candidates are extremely close to each other in polls. These poll results make it extremely hard to determine a potential outcome, even with all of the data.

Here are the races whose candidates are polling close together:

Most Likely to Flip:

According to the three most popular polls, there are six seats that are expected to flip Democrat. These are all races that should be observed to understand the change in public opinion.

The districts most likely to flip are New Jersey’s 2nd District, Florida’s 27th, Arizona’s 2nd, California’s 49th, New Jersey’s 11th, and Virginia’s 10th.

Here is a breakdown of who is running in each race and their chances of winning, according to FiveThirtyEight.

California 49:

The Democratic candidate, Mike Levin, is given a 94.3 percent chance of winning. Diane L. Harkey is only sitting at a 5.7 percent chance.

Arizona 2:

Ann Kirkpatrick is also sitting at a 96.3 percent chance of winning, with her opponent, Lea Marquez Peterson, sitting at 3.7 percent.

New Jersey 2:

New Jersey’s 2nd District has only a one in 60 chance of staying red, with candidate Jeff Van Drew given a 98.4 percent chance of winning.

New Jersey 11:

FiveThirtyEight gives Mikie Sherrill an 86.2 percent chance of winning and Jay Webber a 13.8 percent chance.

Virginia 10:

Jennifer Wexton is showing the advantage with an 89.2 percent chance of winning. Barbara Comstock is only given a 10.8 chance.

What’s at Stake:

Issues such as immigration, tax reform, and health care will be handled much differently if Democrats are in the majority. Polling data can only help make a guess on what may happen on November 6.

What will really determine the election results is the current national opinion of Republicans and the amount of voter turnout for both parties. Both Republicans and Democrats must mobilize their supporters and encourage them to go to the polls.


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