Will Republicans keep control of the Senate in upcoming midterm elections?
Only 35 of the 100 seats are up for election.
As 51 seats are needed for a majority, Republicans only have to defend nine seats, while Democrats — including two independents who tend to vote with them — have 26 seats up for election.
The seats up for re-election:
Chances for each party controlling the Senate:
Republicans are forecast to continue controlling the Senate as of October 23, according to FiveThirtyEight. The GOP has an 81.3 percent chance of keeping control, while Democrats currently have an 18.7 percent chance of winning control.
The seats the GOP needs to keep
Republican running for Jeff Flake’s seat: Martha McSally
Democratic challenger: Kyrsten Sinema
Who has the lead: McSally has a RealClearPolitics average lead of 0.7 points
Republican incumbent: Dean Heller
Democratic challenger: Jacky Rosen
Who has the lead: Heller has a RealClearPolitics average lead of 1.7 points
Heller told IJR that the predictions of a “blue wave” taking over control in the Senate are “just talk.”
“Nevada – and this country – is firing on all cylinders when it comes to this economy and the number of jobs created. Americans are paying attention. When I talk to Nevadans, they tell me their number one concern is to make sure there are good-paying jobs available. And that’s exactly what I’ve been doing in Senate.”
Heller gave IJR three reasons for voters to show up for him:
- Delivering — has authorized or proposed more than 100 pieces of legislation that have been signed into law, including more than 40 for the veterans
- Listening and taking action — giving hardworking families a “much-needed lift” by previously helping write and pass tax reform, fix the claims process for veterans’ health coverage, and block Yucca Mountain
- Working across party lines —showing commitment to work with other parties on issues that help put Nevadans ahead
Republican running for Orrin Hatch’s seat: Mitt Romney
Democratic challenger: Jenny Wilson
Who has the lead: Romney has a RealClearPolitics average lead of 36 points
Republican incumbent: John Barrasso
Democratic challenger: Gary Trauner
Who has the lead: Barrasso has a 40.6-point lead, according to FiveThirtyEight
Republican incumbent: Deb Fischer
Democratic challenger: Jane Raybould
Who has the lead: Fischer has a 13.9-point lead, according to FiveThirtyEight
Republican incumbent: Ted Cruz
Democratic challenger: Beto O’Rourke
Who has the lead: Cruz has a RealClearPolitics average lead of 7 points
Mississippi special election
Republican incumbent: Cindy Hyde-Smith
Democratic challenger: Mike Espy
Republican challenger: Chris McDaniel
Democratic challenger: Tobey Bartee
Who has the lead: Hyde-Smith leads with 38 percent, Epsy is at 29 percent, McDaniel is at 15 percent, and Bartee is at 2 percent, according to an NBC News/Marist poll
For the special election in Mississippi, Hyde-Smith, Espy, McDaniel, and Bartee will face off in a “jungle primary” in which multiple candidates are competing.
If no candidate gets over 50 percent of the vote, then there is a runoff between the top two vote-getters three weeks later.
Mississippi regular election
Republican incumbent: Roger Wicker
Democratic challenger: David Barria
Who has the lead: Wicker has a 28-point lead, according to an NBC News/Marist poll
Republican incumbent: Marsha Blackburn
Democratic challenger: Phil Bredesen
Who has the lead: Blackburn has a RealClearPolitics average lead of 6.5 points
Correction [10/23/18, 2:12 p.m. ET]: Previously, this article omitted the fact that the Mississippi special election is a “jungle primary.” We have corrected the error.