With the passing of Labor Day, all eyes are on the last stage of the 2016 presidential election between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Nationally, Clinton’s lead is narrowing after a series of polls released in September.
One poll, conducted by CNN and ORC, actually has Trump ahead by one point but Clinton has an average lead of 2.7 points when all the polls are considered:
But what are the candidates’ strongest voting demographics overall?
Below are the four voting groups in which Clinton has an advantage of 30 percentage points or greater:
1. Black Voters
Black Americans make up Clinton’s strongest demographic voting block.
Only 2% of black registered voters polled by Pew Research Center said they support or are leaning toward Trump. By contrast, 85% stand with Clinton — an advantage of 83 percentage points.
Notably, Trump’s current support among voters of various races does not differ much from 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, who earned just 6% of the black vote and 27% of the Hispanic vote that year.
Voting by race, Obama vs. Romney in 2012:
Trump, according to Pew, currently has 26% of the Hispanic vote to Clinton’s 50%.
2. Democrats and Democratic-Leaners
No surprise here. Clinton bests Trump 79% to 4% — giving the former secretary of State her second largest demographic advantage with 75 points.
3. Post-Graduate Educated Voters
Registered voters with post-graduate degrees (beyond a four-year degree) favor Clinton over Trump by 38 percentage points — 59% to 21%, respectively.
Trump and Romney differ in their supports’ levels of education. According to the Pew report, Trump best Clinton among voters with “some college” and “high school or less” while Clinton has a 13 point advantage among college graduates.
In 2012, Romney only won among college graduates while Obama won those with both higher and lower education levels:
Voting by education level, Obama vs. Romney in 2012:
4. Non-Religious Voters
The final voter demographic in which Clinton has a minimum 30-point advantage is with the religiously unaffiliated. These voters support Clinton or are leaning that way at 56% while just 19% stand with Trump, giving her a 37-point margin.
By contrast, a plurality of Catholics and mainline Protestants support Trump and more than six-in-ten white Evangelical Protestants support him as well.
See Pew’s full results in the graphic below:
But there are a couple demographics that are hurting Clinton by more than thirty points…
1. Republicans and Republican-Leaners
Unsurprisingly, Trump bests Clinton by 71 points among registered Republicans and voters leaning toward the GOP. Clinton wins only 5% of this voting group.
2. White Evangelical Protestants
While Clinton has the advantage with unaffiliated voters, the Democratic nominee pulls 17% of white evangelical Protestants and Trump attracts 63%, giving him an advantage of 46 percentage points.
Trump has a smaller advantage among mainline Protestants, 46% to 33%, but among Catholic voters he pulls only 42% to Clinton’s 40%.
The country is less than 60 days away from Election Day and about 2 weeks from the first presidential general election debate.
Lester Holt from NBC will moderate the first debate September 26.