Former Republican Governor of Maryland Larry Hogan is within striking distance of pulling off a historic upset in his state’s 2024 Senate election, according to a poll released on Tuesday.
Hogan and Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks, who serves as the executive of Prince George’s County, are tied at 46% support among likely voters in an AARP poll conducted by a bipartisan polling team consisting of Impact Research and Fabrizio Ward. Maryland has not had a Republican senator for nearly 40 years and President Joe Biden carried the state by more than 30 points in 2020, according to Politico.
“I’ve been clear from the start that we are the underdogs in this race. People have always counted us out—and in this deep blue state, during this unprecedented and chaotic time in American politics, this uphill battle is a daunting climb,” Hogan said in a press release his campaign shared with the Daily Caller News Foundation. “In spite of all of that, the palpable enthusiasm of Maryland voters for independent leadership has given our campaign real momentum, and the chance to defy the odds.”
The poll shows Hogan significantly outperforming former President Donald Trump, as Trump trails Vice President Kamala Harris by a margin of 64% to 32% in the state. About 7% of voters remain undecided in the Senate contest, compared to 5% for the presidential ballot.
There is considerable money backing Hogan’s bid, as his campaign had pulled in roughly $7 million and spent about $4.3 million as of June 30, the most recent date for which Federal Election Commission (FEC) campaign finance data is available. Maryland’s Future, a super PAC backing Hogan, has amassed nearly $15.5 million in cash on hand and has already spent around half a million boosting his candidacy, per FEC records.
Hogan has defined himself as a moderate Republican, stressing his independence and claiming he would vote to codifyRoe v. Wade and oppose policies laid out in the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 transition plan, among other things.
The former governor’s maverick identity, however, has irked some in the Republican Party, with Republican National Committee (RNC) co-chair Lara Trump criticizing him for calling on Americans to respect the verdict of Trump’s criminal trial before the verdict was announced, Politico reported. Multiple GOP senators later urged the RNC to leave Hogan be.
Winning Maryland could swing control of the Senate in favor of Republicans, as current projections forecast that the chamber will likely be controlled by only a seat or two.
The poll was conducted by Impact Research, President Joe Biden’s pollster, and Fabrizio Ward, Trump’s pollster, and reached 600 likely voters between Aug. 14 and Aug. 20, with a 4-point margin of error. Other polls, such as those from Goucher College and the University of Maryland, have shown Hogan ahead whereas some, like those from Public Policy Polling, have shown Alsobrooks with the lead.
The Alsobrooks campaign did not immediately respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.
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