Although the purple state of Nevada boasts just six electoral votes, it could deliver a “big blow” to Vice President Kamala Harris and pave a path to victory for former President Donald Trump, experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Although Nevada has consistently voted blue since 2008, the race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is tightening in the swing state, which could prove damaging for the Harris campaign. Although Nevada’s electoral weight is smaller compared to other battlegrounds, the Silver State’s unique economy and demographic makeup could be a deciding factor for which candidate takes the White House, experts told the DCNF.
“There are very few paths to victory that do not involve Nevada,” Dheeraj Chand, a Democratic strategist, told the DCNF.
“It would be a big blow to her when we take those electoral votes,” McLaughlin told the DCNF.
“One of the particularly interesting things about it is it’s the only state that President Trump lost twice,” Jeremy Hughes, a GOP strategist based in Nevada, told the DCNF. “Now, he has a chance to flip it this cycle.”
The polling between Trump and Harris has been tight, with the Republican nominee trailing the Vice President by just 1.4 points, according to RealClearPolling averages. The most recent Hill/Emerson poll has put the two neck and neck at 48%, while Harris boasts just a one point lead over Trump according to a recent American Greatness poll.
The swing state has gone blue for nearly two decades, but by slim margins. In Nevada, both former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and President Joe Biden defeated Trump by 2.4 points in 2016 and 2020, respectively.
“Republicans were able to win a gubernatorial election, which I would say, outside of Brian Kemp, was maybe the bright spot for Republicans on election night [in 2022],” Hughes told the DCNF. “So it has moved a little to the right. Voter registration in the state has also moved significantly. In fact, I think more Republicans than Democrats will vote in this election.”
Nevada currently has two Democratic Senators, Jacky Rosen and Catherine Cortez Masto, as well as a Republican governor, Joe Lombardo. Of the 17 counties across the state, 15 of them have voted Republican in the last two presidential elections.
Over 15% of Nevada’s economy is derived from tourism, with visitors spending over $55 billion in the state in 2023. Trump’s “no tax on tips” proposal was one pitch that would accommodate Nevada’s unique economy, which Harris echoed herself on the campaign trail.
“Nevadans are focused on the issues that hit closest to home—kitchen table issues like rising costs, stagnant wages, and affordable housing,” Michael McDonald, Nevada GOP chairman and senior Trump advisor, told the DCNF. “When we ask ourselves if we are better off than we were four years ago, for most of us, the answer is no. The cost of living has gone up, gas prices remain high, and inflation continues to erode the value of our hard-earned paychecks.”
“President Trump’s emphasis on helping Americans keep more of their hard-earned money, from no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security, and no taxes on overtime work, is resonating with voters across our state,” McDonald told the DCNF. “As Nevadans look to the future, they are increasingly turning to President Trump’s economic policies as the solution to getting ahead, not just getting by.”
Because Nevada’s economy is largely reliant on tourism and the service industry, pandemic shutdowns crippled the workforce. As a result, Nevada currently has the highest unemployment rate of any state in America at 5.5%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“When the country gets a cold, Nevada gets the flu,” Hughes told the DCNF. “Everything is economic. Everything on the economy hurts more in Nevada, and people will remember how the economy was when President Trump was in office.”
“If we lose Nevada, it is because we are having problems with the service industry, and because we’re having a lot of problems with Latinos generally,” Chand told the DCNF.
Nevada has a substantial Hispanic population, with roughly 20% of the state’s households being Spanish speaking. Although Latinos have historically been blue voters, Trump has made significant strides, trailing Harris by just three points among the demographic, according to a recent Nobel Predictive Insights poll.
“The reason why Kamala Harris is doing her Univision town hall in Vegas is precisely because we’re doing so well with Latino voters,’ John McLaughlin, a Trump campaign pollster and CEO of McLaughlin & Associates, told the DCNF. “Harris is in trouble in Nevada.”
Experts like Chand and McLaughlin highlight that the reason Trump has gained among Hispanics is likely because they are dissatisfied with the current Biden-Harris Administration.
“I think it’s really important to be clear about this,” Chand said. “It’s not so much that is a Republican, or that it’s Trump who gained, as much as it is a Democratic loss. Some of this is Democratic defection.”
“When you talk about Hispanic voters, you talk about American citizens,” McLaughlin told the DCNF. “Hispanic voters are coming to Trump because, like other Americans, they’ve gotten hurt by inflation. The basic cost of food and gas, buying a car, buying a house or paying rent has hurt them.”
Due to Nevada’s polling and the greater political landscape, strategists like Hughes and McLaughlin are optimistic about Trump’s chances.
“The momentum on the ground to elect new leadership in Washington is strong,” McDonald told the DCNF. “Nevadans want a President who will prioritize their financial security and return to a prosperous economy, and that’s exactly what President Trump is delivering.”
“I would rather be President Trump when it comes to Nevada than Kamala Harris,” Hughes told the DCNF.
The Harris and campaign didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
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