• Latest
  • Trending
  • All
  • News
  • Business
  • Lifestyle
DAVID BLACKMON: The Silly Peak Oil Debate Rages On

DAVID BLACKMON: The Silly Peak Oil Debate Rages On

September 28, 2024
LARRY PROVOST: President Trump Stamps Out Calhoun’s Legacy Of Insurrection And Nullification

LARRY PROVOST: President Trump Stamps Out Calhoun’s Legacy Of Insurrection And Nullification

June 16, 2025
Trump Issues Ominous Warning To Iran

Trump Issues Ominous Warning To Iran

June 16, 2025
EXCLUSIVE: How Chinese Intel Infiltrated LA Mayor Karen Bass’ Camp

EXCLUSIVE: How Chinese Intel Infiltrated LA Mayor Karen Bass’ Camp

June 16, 2025
EXCLUSIVE — ‘Something For Every American’: Speaker Johnson Touts ‘America First’ Wins In Trump’s Megabill

EXCLUSIVE — ‘Something For Every American’: Speaker Johnson Touts ‘America First’ Wins In Trump’s Megabill

June 16, 2025
JD FOSTER: Senator Paul Is Mostly Right And A Little Wrong About The Big, Beautiful Bill

JD FOSTER: Senator Paul Is Mostly Right And A Little Wrong About The Big, Beautiful Bill

June 16, 2025
EXCLUSIVE: University Consultants Debated Creating ‘LGBTQ+ Church’ To Skirt Trump’s Orders

EXCLUSIVE: University Consultants Debated Creating ‘LGBTQ+ Church’ To Skirt Trump’s Orders

June 16, 2025
VIJAY JAYARAJ:  Big, Beautiful Coal Here For Many More Years Despite ‘Green’ Demonization

VIJAY JAYARAJ: Big, Beautiful Coal Here For Many More Years Despite ‘Green’ Demonization

June 16, 2025
California Demands Federal Tax Dollars For High-Speed Rail Boondoggle

California Demands Federal Tax Dollars For High-Speed Rail Boondoggle

June 16, 2025
EXCLUSIVE: Thune Says Senate GOP Has Plan To Fight Back Against Activist Judges

EXCLUSIVE: Thune Says Senate GOP Has Plan To Fight Back Against Activist Judges

June 16, 2025
White Wisconsin Dairy Farmer Sues USDA For Holding Out On Axing Biden-Era DEI Programs

White Wisconsin Dairy Farmer Sues USDA For Holding Out On Axing Biden-Era DEI Programs

June 16, 2025
Israel Not Interested In Peace Talks With Iran, Netanyahu Says

Israel Not Interested In Peace Talks With Iran, Netanyahu Says

June 16, 2025
Trump Cans Biden’s Nuclear Regulator As Agency Faces Pro-Nuke Overhaul

Trump Cans Biden’s Nuclear Regulator As Agency Faces Pro-Nuke Overhaul

June 16, 2025
  • Donald Trump
  • State of the Union
  • Elon Musk
  • Tariffs
  • Congress
  • Faith
  • Immigration
Monday, June 16, 2025
  • Login
IJR
  • Politics
  • US News
  • Commentary
  • World News
  • Faith
  • Latest Polls
No Result
View All Result
IJR
No Result
View All Result
Home Op-Ed

DAVID BLACKMON: The Silly Peak Oil Debate Rages On

by Daily Caller News Foundation
September 28, 2024
in Op-Ed, Wire
250 2
0
DAVID BLACKMON: The Silly Peak Oil Debate Rages On
491
SHARES
1.4k
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Daily Caller News Foundation

Analysts and professionals in the global energy space have long debated the prospects for reaching peak demand for crude oil. It is an issue that has long sparked debate, some of which becomes emotional among highly invested stakeholders on one side or the other.

In recent years, such stakeholders risk developing cases of whiplash when considering the competing perspectives about this “peak oil” matter published by OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

IEA has spent the last 12 months predicting an earlier advent of the peak oil phenomenon than pretty much any other experts envision, saying it will come about sometime in this decade, no later than 2030. Not surprisingly, the agency’s analysts doubled down on that projection in its most recent monthly Oil Market Report.

In a section titled “When the Music Stops,” the IEA focused on short-term factors like slowing demand growth in China, where oil consumption has declined year-over-year for the past four months. Noting that Chinese demand growth has slowed to an estimated 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) across 2024, the agency leaned on that data point as a reason to lower its estimated global demand growth to 800,000 bpd.

The same section also pointed to the isolated slowing of U.S. gasoline-deliveries growth in June — a factoid that could simply be statistical noise — as support for its annual growth forecast. But a slowdown in crude demand growth is no surprise, given that economic growth has been slowing throughout 2024. This direct cause-and-effect phenomenon has been a consistent aspect of oil markets across history. It is also a short-term factor whose impact will ultimately be diminished by subsequent events.

In contrast, OPEC’s projections over the past year regarding near-term global demand growth and the anticipated peak in oil demand have reached diametrically opposite conclusions. Last summer, the cartel projected global growth in crude demand for 2024 would be a robust 2.25 million bpd. Slowing economic growth has led OPEC’s analysts to lower that initial prediction over the past two months, but only to 2.1 million bpd — more than double that of both IEA and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Where the concept of peak oil demand is concerned, OPEC has held to an even more oil-bullish stance, stating its projections do not see that threshold being reached anytime during its projection timeframe through 2050. In its annual Global Outlook published last week, OPEC sees oil demand growing by that year to 120 million bpd, a rise of 18 million bpd from current levels.

“What the Outlook underscores is that the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas bears no relation to fact,” said OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais in the forward to the report.

Al Ghais also pointed out the fact that: “Over the past year, there has been further recognition that the world can only phase in new energy sources at scale when they are genuinely ready, economically competitive, acceptable to consumers and with the right infrastructure in place.” This undeniable reality means that projections of oil demand in the transportation sector being crushed by alternatives like EVs and hydrogen cars are almost certainly overly optimistic. The rapidly faltering market demand for EVs strongly supports that likelihood.

Al Ghais also contends that a “realistic view of demand growth expectations necessitates adequate investments in oil and gas, today, tomorrow, and for many decades into the future.” That contention stands in contrast to the IEA report released in May, 2021, in which IEA Director Fatih Birol urged an immediate halt in all new investments in the finding and development of new oil resources in order to fight climate change. By August of that year, Biral was comically urging oil companies to increase their oil production in order to help re-balance an undersupplied global market.

Episodes like that have led many to question whether IEA bases its projections related to oil markets on data or on wishful thinking. The validity of such questions was only reinforced when Birol announced early this year that the agency’s mission was being expanded into outright advocacy for promoting the energy transition.

So, who is right? We’ll find out in 2030, but the smart money is on the group with billions riding on the answer.

David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialized in public policy and communications.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.

Featured Image: Screen Capture/PBS NewsHour

All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any legitimate news publisher that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must include our logo, our reporter’s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.

Tags: DCNFtechnologyU.S. News
Share196Tweet123
Daily Caller News Foundation

Daily Caller News Foundation

Advertisements

Top Stories June 10th
Top Stories June 7th
Top Stories June 6th
Top Stories June 3rd
Top Stories May 30th
Top Stories May 29th
Top Stories May 24th
Top Stories May 23rd
Top Stories May 21st
Top Stories May 17th

Join Over 6M Subscribers

We’re organizing an online community to elevate trusted voices on all sides so that you can be fully informed.





IJR

    Copyright © 2024 IJR

Trusted Voices On All Sides

  • About Us
  • GDPR Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Service
  • Editorial Standards & Corrections Policy
  • Subscribe to IJR

Follow Us

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Politics
  • US News
  • Commentary
  • World News
  • Faith
  • Latest Polls

    Copyright © 2024 IJR

Top Stories June 10th Top Stories June 7th Top Stories June 6th Top Stories June 3rd Top Stories May 30th Top Stories May 29th Top Stories May 24th Top Stories May 23rd Top Stories May 21st Top Stories May 17th