Israel’s current dilemma began on Oct. 7, 2023 — the date Hamas invaded the country and killed over 1,200 people, sparking a war in the Gaza enclave — but has since evolved into a much larger regional war conflict actors like Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis and a variety of Iraq and Syria-based terrorist networks. Israel’s military, while advanced compared to the rest of the region, is limited by size and ability, and the current war on multiple fronts has reportedly left some Israeli soldiers burnt out, according to multiple reports.
It isn’t surprising, but the military is still managing to cripple both Hamas in Hezbollah to the point where both terrorist groups have lost significant capabilities, David Daoud, senior fellow on Middle Eastern affairs at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
“The [Israel Defense Forces] is a small army. It’s one that doesn’t necessarily have soldiers to spare,” Daoud told the DCNF, pointing to the “tedious” task of having to root out Hamas fighters from hundreds of miles of tunnels underneath Gaza, and the challenge of confronting Hezbollah in difficult terrain in Lebanon. “But we’re still seeing the IDF score very impressive victories on both fronts. So could there be burnout, sure, but are these forces still fighting tenaciously? I think so.”
The IDF has wiped out roughly half of Hamas’ roughly 40,000 fighters in Gaza over the last year, according to the most recent estimates. So great is the damage dealt to Hamas that it will likely turn into a smaller insurgent group rather than a large-scale threat to Israel’s national security, as it was last October.
The IDF has now repositioned some of its fighting forces in northern Israel facing the border of Lebanon, where tens of thousands of Hezbollah terrorists are located. Hezbollah is considered far and away Iran’s most capable terrorist network and is estimated to have anywhere between 20,000 and 100,000 fighters, although the latter number was provided by the terrorist group’s former leader and is likely exaggerated.
There were concerns among the international community that Israel may take serious blows if it opened a full conflict with Hezbollah. But recent weeks have proven otherwise; Israel has wiped out thousands of fighters through ground operations and airstrikes, crippled key elements of Hezbollah’s communications system and killed the terrorist group’s leader in a strike in September — along with a number of other high-ranking officials in recent weeks and months.
It’s a considerable feat, Daoud said, but it doesn’t mean Hezbollah will give up.
“They’ve hit the different joints and they threw Hezbollah off-kilter and did it in such rapid succession at multiple layers deep,” Daoud said, using a boxing metaphor to describe the blows Israel has dealt to Hezbollah. “The Israelis started to fight Hezbollah in earnest, and the organization is now this big guy who’s crumpled up in a corner because all of his joints have been broken.”
“[But] how much pain could you inflict to essentially make them sign their own death warrant? Most people would say, no price that you could impose on me that would make me do that,” Daoud said. “So Hezbollah is going to have to keep fighting, and the Israelis are going to have to keep ratcheting up the pressure, which could lead to a broader ground invasion.”
But the operation hasn’t come without costs. Some Israeli units have grown tired of the prolonged and expanded war, and others aren’t even sure what the endgame of the conflict is, according to multiple reports. Approximately 20 soldiers and parents of soldiers who spoke to Israeli outlet HaMakom last week said there is a suppressed but growing sense of discontent among infantry units in the IDF, according to a translation.
The discontent in some cases is pointed directly at IDF leadership, as troops don’t understand why they are carrying out certain orders or operations, according to a translation of HaMakom. Some soldiers have outright refused to keep serving, drawing rebuke and consequences from their superiors.
Feelings of burnout began to intensify among some even before the wider operation against Hezbollah began, according to some soldiers who spoke to The Wall Street Journal in August.
“I don’t know what will happen,” Adi Hazan, an IDF troop, told the WSJ. “No one knew this situation would continue for so long.”
Part of the problem is that the Israeli military is limited by size, and can only devote so many resources to one area or operation at once. The IDF has an active duty population of roughly 150,000 personnel but at the peak of the war in Gaza had to draw on more than 300,000 of its reserve population.
Reservists are normal civilians and often have jobs or families, but many have had to set their personal lives aside to serve in multiple deployments over the last year, according to the WSJ. Their service has also drawn reservists away from their businesses, which have suffered profit losses as a result.
“I feel that everything is collapsing,” said Hazan, who has been unable to operate his business and has hundreds of thousands of dollars in credit debt. “At the end of the day, I also need to deal with life. I’m not a conscripted soldier — I am a soldier with a family.”
An IDF spokesperson told the DCNF that the military “appreciates the reservists who serve while making significant efforts to fulfill their personal commitments, which they paused due to the war.”
“Despite the extended reserve duty, the dedication and commitment of the reservists to all wartime missions, both on the front lines and in support roles, continue,” the spokesperson told the DCNF. “Attendance rates in combat units are even higher than during regular times, and operational commands and units rely heavily on reservists to maintain the intensified efforts.”
There’s no questioning that the war has taken a toll on the IDF, though that feeling is not likely widespread within its ranks at this point, Michael DiMino, expert at Defense Priorities and former CIA official, told the DCNF. But that doesn’t mean the feeling won’t grow if the war drags on, DiMino said.
“From everything I’m seeing, it’s pretty contained. It’s pretty minimal. Is it happening? I’m sure it is, in sort of limited cases,” DiMino told the DCNF. “But fighting to exhaustion is a huge risk for any kind of fighting force, and especially in a relatively small country like Israel with a relatively small armed forces.”
“So if the ‘ops tempo,’ as we say, continues to be high for the Israelis, yes, I think there could be issues with that in the long term,” DiMino said. “But from what I’m seeing at this point, it doesn’t look like it’s blinking red.”
It isn’t clear when Israel will choose to wrap operations in Lebanon or Gaza. The U.S. has urged for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and put forward several proposals for a deal, but these have been rejected on numerous occasions by Hamas and Israel. U.S. officials have also been urging for de-escalation in Lebanon, but the Israeli government hasn’t signaled that that will be imminent.
There’s also the separate problem of the conflict between Israel and Iran, and while different in nature than Hamas and Hezbollah, has raised major concerns among U.S. and Western officials. Iran has now launched two sets of strikes against Israel — one attack in April, the other on Oct. 1 — involving hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones.
The latest attack has prompted Israel to vow to retaliate in an attack that’s expected in the coming days. The exact nature of the attack isn’t clear, but the Israeli government has reportedly decided that it will go after Iranian military targets. The prospect of striking Iranian oil or nuclear sites was rumored, but U.S. officials reportedly convinced their Israeli counterparts not to do so.
Some of Israel’s plans to strike Iran as outlined in U.S. intelligence documents were leaked earlier this week by an unknown actor. An investigation has been opened to determine who was behind the leak.
DiMino told the DCNF there’s no question Israel is achieving its wartime goals, but that it should be wary of expanding to a point where the region is thrown into unsustainable chaos — and some would argue it’s already at that point.
“I think as long as they keep sort of calling everybody’s bluffs all the time, yeah, I think they’re gonna continue to succeed,” DiMino said. “But they should not be licking their chops necessarily and looking to expand the war in other areas at least, at least right now.”
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