CNN Senior Data Reporter Harry Enten admitted Monday that he could not figure out which candidate would benefit from “lower turnout” in the 2024 election.
Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 0.1% in the RealClearPolling average of polls from Oct. 11 – 26, and maintains that margin when Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein, independent candidate Cornel West and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver are included in surveys. Enten noted that the number of Americans certain to vote was down from 2020.
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“Remember 2020 had record turnout. Feelings towards voting, certain to vote, back in 2020 at this point, 88% of registered voters said they were certain about where are we today? It’s just at 81%, John, it’s a seven-point drop,” Enten told “CNN News Central” host John Berman. “But that’s not the only polling metric in which I‘m looking at. How about extremely motivated to vote at this point in 2020, it was 73%. You look now, it’s just 65% again, a high single digit drop, eight points in this particular case, but it’s not just the polling, right”
In a CNN poll conducted Oct. 22-23, Trump and Harris are tied at 47% each, a situation that persists with West, Stein and Oliver as options. Berman asked Enten who would be hurt more if turnout dropped.
“This is the million-dollar question and the million-dollar answer is one that probably satisfies neither side. Harris versus Trump margin, lower turnout may not benefit either side,” Enten said. “You know, if you look at the broad universe of registered voters you see Harris up by a point well within the margin of error nationally, if you look at likely voters, it’s still Harris by a point.”
Harris and her running mate, Democratic Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, have escalated attacks on former President Donald Trump, labeling him a “fascist” during a CNN town hall and Walz compared Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden to a 1939 rally by the Nazi-sympathetic German-American Bund.
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