CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten on Wednesday outlined factors that point to former President Donald Trump defeating Vice President Kamala Harris in November.
Trump and Harris are currently locked in a tight race as the former president holds a narrow lead over the vice president in six of the top seven battleground states, according to the RealClearPolling averages. Enten, on “CNN News Central,” said that voter dissatisfaction with the country’s trajectory, President Joe Biden’s unpopularity and high Republican registration numbers are indicators favoring a Trump victory.
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“Just 28% of Americans, voters think the country is going in the right direction, is on the right track. And I want to put that into a historical perspective for you. Okay, what’s the average percentage of the public that thinks that the country is on the right track when the incumbent party loses? It’s 25%,” Enten said. “That 25% looks an awful bit like that 28% up there. It doesn’t look anything, anything like this 42% [average when the incumbent party won] doesn’t look anything like this 28%.”
“So the bottom line is very few Americans think the country is on the right track at this particular point. It tracks much more with when the incumbent party loses than with [when] it wins. In fact, I went back through history, there isn’t a single time in which 28% of the American public thinks the country is going on the right track in which the incumbent party actually won,” he added. They always lose when just 28% of the country believes that the country is on the right track.”
Enten also noted that Biden’s low approval rating could historically signal a loss for Harris based on previous presidents with net negative approval ratings not being followed by successors from their own party.
“Now, we don’t know if Kamala Harris is going to succeed Joe Biden, but we know back in 2008, George W. Bush’s approval rating was down in the 20’s. Did a Republican succeed George W. Bush? No. How ’bout in 1968? Lyndon Baines Johnson, his net approval rating was negative. Did a Democrat succeed Lyndon Baines Johnson? No,” the data reporter said. “How ’bout in ’52 Harry S. Truman, his approval rating was in the 20’s, if not the upper teens.”
“Did a Democrat succeed Harry S. Truman in ’52? My memory, no … Dwight Eisenhower, a Republican, succeeded Harry S. Truman,” he continued. “So the bottom line is for Kamala Harris to win, she’d have to break history, be a Democrat to succeed Joe Biden when Biden’s approval rating is way underwater at this point.”
Moreover, Enten said Republicans have been gaining ground against Democrats in party registration in the battleground states, particularly noting Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
“So Republicans are putting more Republicans in the electorate, the Democratic number versus the Republican number has shrunk. And so the bottom line is if Republicans win, come next week, Donald Trump wins comes next week, the signs all along will have been obvious,” he said. “We would look at the right direction being very low, Joe Biden’s approval rating being very low and Republicans really registering numbers. You can’t say you weren’t warned.”
(Featured Image Media Credit: Screenshot/Rumble/CNN)
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