Conventional wisdom says Republicans will lose the House in the 2026 mid-term elections. With a two-seat majority, conventional wisdom may be right, but history, crossovers and nuts suggest Republicans might hold Democrats at bay.
Over the last half century, the party in the White House typically lost an average of 22 House seats in the mid-terms, but those 12 mid-terms present three distinct groupings. For example, in 2002 Republicans gained 8 seats after President George W. Bush crushed the Taliban in Afghanistan.
On five occasions, the mid-terms produced wave elections, inflicting on the president’s party an average 44-seat loss. Even a little wave would sweep the Republicans out.
For now, the most likely outcome is a non-wave, non-war mid-term, or a base case election producing a 9-seat Republican loss. Democrats would then gain House control, but two other factors are in play to offset that history.
The Cook Political Report ranked 39 Democrat-held seats as “competitive” compared to only 29 for Republicans. Further, Donald Trump won 13 seats won by Democrats in 2024, while Kamala Harris won only three seats claimed by Republicans.
Either metric, competitive seats or crossover voters, suggests an uphill climb for Democrats.
The Republicans’ ace-in-the-hole, of course, is the Democrats. A focused Democratic party would pose a grave threat to Republicans’ chances. Instead, as even some Democrats have observed, Democrats are superglue-stuck on stupid, each seeming to compete to be the most obnoxious clown on camera. Virginia Senator Mark Warner displayed his talent for understatement when he observed the Democrats’ brand is “really bad” thanks to radical wokism.
To an extent, this plunge into inanity is to be expected. Beat badly by their arch-nemesis, Democrats have yet to accept the causes; message or messenger or some nefarious outside influence? So far, the lean is toward outside influence, but they just can’t find it. Can’t be anything Democrats did, right?
Nor do Democrats have anyone with national prominence who can point the way. Former President Barack Obama is boring old news while Kamala Harris is melting like the Wicked Witch of the West after Trump’s bucket of water. And old guard Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer is never a good look.
There’s just no way to slap a “new and improved” saddle on that old warhorse.
Looking to the next generation, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, usually a smart man, regularly lapses into saying really stupid stuff. He ranted recently that grocery costs, utility costs, and much else are too high, which is true. But they are high because of Biden policies Jeffries embraced. It’s ridiculous to think anyone could bring utility costs down in just a few weeks.
Watch a Democratic press conference and you see old women with purple hair alongside younger members competing with one another to drop the most “f bombs.” For fun, watch Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren’s head explode daily.
Or watch California wackadoodle Maxine Waters scream at some guy just doing his job, blocking Waters from crashing the Department of Education headquarters. And what would she have done if she’d gotten inside? She’d just scream at somebody else as long as the TV cameras rolled.
The one certainty in this world is that bad things happen. Some may happen between now and the mid-terms. If they are bad enough and Trump is credibly blamed, then Republicans could suffer an adverse wave.
Otherwise, all things considered and Democrats behaving like addled loons, Republicans might just break with history and hold the House if, and this is a big if, Republicans can keep from acting like fools themselves.
JD Foster is the former chief economist at the Office of Management and Budget and former chief economist and senior vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He now resides in relative freedom in the hills of Idaho.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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