The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) released a poll Tuesday that maintains Republicans are in a “strong position to defend and grow the House majority” in the 2026 midterms.
The poll was first revealed at a House Republican Conference meeting, and compares the political landscape going into the 2026 midterms with the atmosphere ahead of the 2018 midterms, which were held during President Donald Trump’s first White House term and were widely considered a “blue wave.” The nationwide poll was conducted April 13-18 and was first reported by Punchbowl News.
“Unlike in 2017, voters today are turning away from Democrats’ failed leadership and are rallying behind Republican solutions on the issues that matter most,” states the NRCC’s memo on the poll. “Unlike 2017, this poll demonstrates that House Republicans are not just on offense and starting the cycle on a strong footing to grow our majority; Republicans are leading the charge and setting the terms of the fight.”
Democrats remain just one point ahead of Republicans on the generic ballot, according to the poll. In April 2017, the Democratic Party had a six-point lead on the generic Congressional ballot, the memo says.
However, across the 13 Democratic-held districts which Trump won in 2024, Republicans are leading the generic ballot by two points, the poll found. The NRCC’s memo calls this a “strong indicator of Republican momentum.”
“With a unified message, a powerful fundraising edge, and a strong political foundation already in place, House Republicans are poised to retain and grow our majority in 2026,” the memo states.
The poll also found that 72% of voters viewed the Democratic Party unfavorably. The NRCC wrote that this response means voters “overwhelmingly reject [Democrats’] extreme and out of touch agenda.”
When asked who “cares about people like me,” voters ranked both parties equally, 47% to 47%, the poll found. This marks a 13-point improvement for Republicans compared to 2017. In addition, Republicans lead by eight points on voter connection in the 13 Democratic-held districts Trump won.
“If the first 100 days have proved anything, it’s that House Republicans are fighting for the American people while Democrats are fighting amongst themselves. The map is shifting. The momentum is real,” NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella said in a statement. “And House Republicans are poised to grow our majority in 2026.”
On the issue landscape portion of the poll, Trump showed a 56%-43% advantage on immigration and border security. In addition, 53% of voters indicated that government spending needs to be evaluated. Regarding economic confidence, 55% of voters found their personal finances to be “excellent” or “good.”
Outside of polling, swing district Republicans’ Q1 fundraising has nearly doubled over vulnerable House Democrats’ as the map swings towards Republicans, according to the memo.
“The battle for the majority will be hard-fought across individual battleground districts, but House Republicans are well-prepared, well-resourced, and on a clear path to not only retain the majority but grow it in 2026 as we continue delivering on the America First agenda,” the memo states.
The nationwide survey was conducted using 1,000 likely voters through live telephone interviews and online voter file panels. The poll has a margin of error of ±3.1%.
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