Ukraine’s massive Sunday drone attacks against Russian air bases have further complicated President Donald Trump’s push for peace at a crucial juncture in the war.
Ukraine sent a massive swarm of drones to strike key airbases and nuclear bombing assets deep in Russian territory, hitting targets as deep as the furthest reaches of Siberia, according to multiple reports. As Ukraine and Russia failed to make substantial progress Monday during peace talks in Istanbul, Turkey, Trump must decide if pursuing peace is a realistic prospect given the continued attacks from both sides despite attempts at brokering a deal, experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Ukraine claims to have hit 40 bombers, comprising nearly a third of Russia’s strategic bombing fleet, the Associated Press reported Tuesday. The drones were secretly shipped into Russia via covert containers over the course of several months, and they were activated inside Russian territory Sunday to fly to their targets.
“I think Trump has a fundamental decision to make,” George Beebe, director of grand strategy at the Quincy Institute, told the DCNF. “Are we going to engage with Russia over the core issues that underlie the war in Ukraine, namely, NATO expansion and the broader contours of European security and Russia’s role in it? Or are we going to walk away from the situation in Ukraine and trust that this won’t escalate? I think if we walk away, this war will escalate. There’s no question this war will escalate.”
Russia loosened its doctrine in nuclear weapons use in December 2024 after President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine’s usage of long-range ballistic missiles supplied by the U.S. Beebe thinks that the targeting of nuclear bomber assets by Ukraine could prove to be a dangerous escalation.
“I think it’s an extraordinarily dangerous development, because the Ukrainians have attacked Russia’s strategic bomber force, which is one element of their nuclear triad,” Beebe told the DCNF. “The Russians made changes to their nuclear use doctrine which said that attacks by a non-nuclear state that would disrupt Russia’s nuclear forces that were conducted with the support of a nuclear state are grounds for nuclear usage.”
Russia has an estimated 5,580 nuclear weapons in its stockpile, according to the Arms Control Association.
The two sides have now warred for three years, taking countless Russian and Ukrainian lives while the front lines remain relatively stagnant. Notably, Vice President JD Vance told reporters in April that it may be time for the U.S. to “walk away” from the peace process if Moscow and Kiev refuse to make meaningful progress toward ending the war.
Trump has reportedly lost patience with Putin in peace talks, saying the Russian president was “crazy” amid the nation launching their largest drone attack of the war on May 25. Between May 23 and the 25, Russia launched a total of 900 drone attacks, according to the AP.
In addition to his impatience with Putin, Trump has also criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, saying in a May 17 interview with Fox News that the Ukrainian leader had “pissed away” U.S. aid. Moreover, Ukrainian leadership reportedly did not notify the Trump administration about the Sunday attacks against Russia in advance, according to Axios.
Russia has stated that it will not agree to a deal that provides Ukraine NATO membership, while also demanding recognition of Russian-occupied Crimea and the annexation of Ukraine’s Kherson, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Luhansk regions, according to the Kyiv Independent. Ukraine has pushed to retain its ability to join NATO and the European Union in negotiations, creating an impasse.
In response to the slow peace talks, Republicans are pushing Trump to slap Russia with sanctions to force Putin to come to the peace table. Behind the scenes, Trump may be open to the measures, people familiar with his thinking told The Wall Street Journal on May 27.
“Regarding the negotiations, Kyiv likely hopes this operation will demonstrate to Moscow the high cost of continuing its aggression. But I wouldn’t hold my breath that this will sway Putin’s thinking,” John Hardie, Russia Program deputy director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the DCNF. “I suspect the Kremlin will continue to fight so long as it thinks it can benefit from doing so, including by gaining territory but more importantly by using ongoing hostilities as leverage in negotiations.”
“This was an impressive operation that will reduce Russia’s long-range strike capacity,” Hardie told the DCNF. “Exactly how much will become clearer over the coming days.”
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