Many lessons appear from the longest government shutdown on record, some obvious, some subtle. The most obvious is that the party with the strongest hand always wins unless the hand is badly misplayed. Republicans had by far the stronger hand, and they played it perfectly.
The Republican hand was initially weak as their thin majorities are made thinner by members who dance to their own music.
The Republican hand greatly strengthened with the decision to seek a “clean” Continuing Resolution (CR). Democrats wanted a clean CR plus something extra — a huge change in policy from current law. The Republican position was much easier to communicate.
The Republican hand further strengthened when the House voted to keep the government open. Senate Republicans, backed by President Trump, tried repeatedly to pass the CR only to be blocked by Democrats. Even some in the legacy media struggled to explain why Republicans were at fault for the shutdown when they voted repeatedly to keep the government open.
Lesson 1: The stronger hand wins. This lesson is repeated with every shutdown, but some legislators never seem to learn.
Lesson 2: The winner gets politically stronger and the loser gets weaker. This one is playing out now in real time.
Further, as the stronger hand is apparent as a possible shutdown draws nigh, shutdowns gain the losers nothing of substance.
Lessons 1 and 2 lead to Lesson 3: Shutdowns are stupid, and, in the immortal words of Forrest Gump, “stupid is as stupid does.”
Lesson 4: Leadership matters. The Democrats’ play could have worked, but only if Republican leadership faltered. Instead, Senate Leader Thune and House Speaker Johnson understood their advantages and held firm, demonstrating an admirable stoutness.
Democrats? Not so much, though Senate Democratic Leader Schumer gave it his best while House Leader Jeffries came along for the ride.
Schumer, the consummate professional, played his hand as well as possible, which is remarkable because he surely knew from the outset the truth of Lessons 1, 2, and 3. Three: Unless Republicans faltered, eventually some Democrats would break ranks.
Knowing defeat awaited, Schumer accepted battle only because his party demanded a fight, foolishly believing the shutdown would create “leverage” in the words of House Minority Whip Katherine Clark. Doubtless Schumer shook his head at such amateurism, first for saying the ugly part out loud and then for believing it.
What Schumer probably didn’t anticipate was that, once Republicans won, he would be blamed for losing, another Forrest Gump moment. Somebody’s got to take the blame, and it can’t be the radical left that demanded the fight, so Schumer gets scapegoated.
Some of the CR-supporting Democrats were the sensible moderates one expected. Pennsylvania’s Fetterman was an early shutdown opponent.
Virginia’s Senator Tim Kaine, a late CR “yeah” vote, provides Lesson 5: Know when to hold’em and when to fold’em. Kaine understood Democrats would lose, but he wanted to use the real-world leverage of his vote to get something in return. Kaine got job security for the thousands of federal workers in his political base of Northern Virginia. Some call this shameful. Others smirkingly call it sausage making. I call it legislating.
Then there is Kentucky’s Rand Paul, the lone Senate Republican to oppose the CR. Paul’s gripe is that federal deficit spending is perilous. He’s right, but is he the only Republican who thinks so? Hardly. As usual, standing on principle, Paul clearly identified a problem only to fail to grasp the moment or offer a winning alternative. Rand’s fan club, of which the author is a member, can only shake their heads.
J.D. Foster is the former chief economist at the Office of Management and Budget and former chief economist and senior vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He now resides in relative freedom in the hills of Idaho.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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