A hotly-contested House race for a heavily Republican seat in Tennessee is in a dead heat less than one week out from election day, according to new polling.
An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey released Wednesday found Republican candidate Matt Van Epps leading Democratic Tennessee state Rep. Aftyn Behn by two percentage points — 46% to 48% — with 5% of likely voters undecided. Van Epps’s paltry lead within the poll’s 3.9% margin of error, is likely to give Republicans’ heartburn ahead of the Dec. 2 special election, which could have unpredictable results due to low turnout.
When the pollster asked undecided to back the candidate they were leaning toward, Van Epps registered 49% support while Behn drew 47% support.
President Donald Trump notably won the sprawling central Tennessee district that stretches from Kentucky to Alabama and incorporates part of downtown Nashville by 22 points in 2024.
Though Van Epps is favored to win the solidly Republican district, the timing of the special election — the Tuesday after Thanksgiving — could affect turnout and potentially give Behn an opening.
“The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day, and who stays home,” executive director of Emerson College Polling Spencer Kimball said in a statement accompanying the poll. “Those who report voting early break for Behn, 56% to 42%, whereas those who plan to vote on Election Day break for Van Epps, 51% to 39%.”
“Voters under 40 are Behn’s strongest group, 64% of whom support her, while Van Epps’ vote increases with age, to 61% of those over 70,” Kimball continued.
The special election contest comes after former Republican Tennessee Rep. Mark Green’s abrupt resignation following the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July. Green served as chairman of the influential Homeland Security Committee before stepping down for an undisclosed opportunity in the private sector.
The Dec. 2 race has huge implications for Republicans’ razor-thin majority, which could drop to a 1-seat advantage if Behn were to overperform and pull off an upset victory.
Republicans are also seeking to halt Democrats’ recent electoral momentum after sweeping key races during the Nov. 4 elections. The Democratic candidates sought to frame their victories as a referendum on voters’ discontent with the high cost of living and Behn appears to be using a similar playbook.
“Angry about high grocery prices? Worried about health care costs? Feeling burned by tariffs? Then Dec. 2 is your day to shake up Washington,” Behn said in a recent campaign ad.
Meanwhile, Republicans have zeroed in on resurfaced comments and video footage of Behn revealing unstable behavior and a history of espousing far-left beliefs, voters appear to be most concerned with cost of living issues.
Behn has voiced support for defunding the police and abolishing prisons while espousing far-left views on race, including mocking white people for criticizing looting during the Black Lives Matter protests in 2020.
Just under 40% of the survey’s respondents said the economy was their top issue, followed by affordability (15%) and health care (13%) and threats to democracy (13%).
If the Van Epps campaign fails to run up the score in the deep-red district, Democrats could be further emboldened as their party seeks to flip the House during next year’s midterm elections.
Trump has hosted a tele-rally for Van Epps and urged his supporters to vote early for the Republican candidate in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday. MAGA Inc., an outside super PAC affiliated with Trump, has also spent money to shore up support for Van Epps, marking the group’s first contribution of the 2026 cycle.
“I am asking all America First Patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, who haven’t voted yet, to please GET OUT AND VOTE for MAGA Warrior Matt Van Epps, tomorrow, November 26th, the last day to vote early in person,” Trump wrote.
The conservative Club For Growth has also dumped resources into the race to fend off a Democratic upset.
Van Epps, who was Green’s hand-picked successor, is endorsed by Trump and previously served as a state commissioner. He is also a combat veteran.
The survey of 600 likely voters was conducted between Nov. 22 to Nov. 24.
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