Jasmine Crockett Trailing Democrat Primary Opponent Less Than 50 Days From Election Day: POLL

Democratic Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett is trailing her rival, Texas state legislator James Talarico, by nearly double digits, less than 50 days before the March 3 primary, according to new polling.

An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey released Thursday found that 47% of Democratic primary voters support Talarico, 38% back Crockett and 15% are undecided. The rival duo are vying to take on Republican Texas Sen. John Cornyn, who is himself facing a competitive three-way GOP primary against Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt.

Talarico, a seminary student who has previously argued “God is nonbinary,” has a 22-point advantage with men over Crockett while women are roughly evenly split between the duo, according to executive director of Emerson College Polling Spencer Kimball. Nearly 60% of Hispanic Democrats broke for Talarico while eight in ten black Democrats supported Crockett, according to the survey.

Crockett, a divisive figure within the Democratic Party, has come under recent scrutiny for claiming Latino voters have a “slave mentality” for supporting restrictive immigration policies in a 2024 interview with Vanity Fair. The Texas Democrats’ torrent of hostile comments toward President Donald Trump and prominent Republicans could also alienatemoderate Democrats and independent voters she would need to win over in a general election environment.

Crockett told CNN’s Jake Tapper in December that she did not need to persuade GOP voters to win statewide in Texas despite Republicans having a significant voter registration advantage in the Lonestar State.

Talarico, whose campaign has proven to be adept at fundraising, reported a nearly $7 million haul in 2025’s final fundraising quarter. Crockett, who jumped into the primary contest in early December, has yet to release her fourth quarter fundraising total.

Texas has repeatedly disappointed Democrats, who have failed to win a statewide election in the state since 1994. However, the Texas seat could be in play for Democrats if Paxton, who is seen by some Republicans as a weaker general election candidate, wins the GOP nomination, according to the survey.

In head-to-head general election matchups, both Crockett and Talarico are roughly tied with Paxton with just over 8% of voters undecided. Cornyn and Hunt both conversely lead Crockett by five points (48% to 43%) and hold a roughly three-point advantage over Talarico.

Paxton has been dogged by a series of ethical controversies in recent years, culminating in a 2023 impeachment by the Texas State House, though he was acquitted by the state Senate.

He leads a three-way ballot with 27% support of GOP primary voters, followed by Cornyn at 26% and Hunt registering 16% support. Nearly 30% of likely GOP primary voters are undecided.

“Neither Ken Paxton nor John Cornyn appears positioned to reach 50% on the primary ballot, as the Republican electorate remains sharply divided,” Kimball said in a statement accompanying the survey.

If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, the two top-vote getters would advance to a May 26 run-off election.

All three Republicans are vying for Trump’s endorsement, though he has given no indication he will back a candidate before the March 3 primary.

The survey of 413 Democratic primary voters has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. The survey was conducted between Jan. 10 and 12.