House Speaker Mike Johnson’s razor-thin Republican majority is set to slim further following Democratic Texas Rep. Christian Menefee’s swearing-in Monday night, days after he won a Saturday special election.
Menefee, a former Harris County Attorney, will represent a Democratic-leaning Houston, Texas-based seat that had been vacant for nearly a year due to former Democratic Texas Rep. Sylvester Turner’s death in March 2025. Menefee’s swearing-in will leave Republicans with a 218-214 majority, meaning just two defecting GOP lawmakers could tank legislation in a party-line vote.
When asked about his slimming majority on Sunday, Johnson voiced confidence that House Republicans would approve a Senate-passed appropriations package to end the partial government shutdown as early as Tuesday.
“We’re going to demonstrate once again that this is the party that takes governing seriously,” Johnson told NBC’s Kristen Welker on “Meet The Press.”
However, a one-vote cushion could make it near impossible for House Republicans to approve legislation without help from Democrats. Republican Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie has also opposed most high-profile legislation in the 119th Congress.
Johnson’s fragile majority was dealt consecutive blows in January following the abrupt resignation of former Republican Georgia Rep. Majorie Taylor Greene and the death of Rep. Doug LaMalfa, who represented a northern California House seat for more than a decade.
If more lawmakers resign or die, Republicans could cede their House majority to Democrats mid-congressional term. Such a mid-term party switch in control of the House has never before happened in American history.
House GOP leadership has urged members to be present for all votes barring personal or health emergencies.
Republican North Carolina Rep. Greg Murphy, who disclosed a tumor in his skull in March 2024, has missed every vote since mid-December. The North Carolina Republican announced on Dec. 18 that he was recovering from a surgery related to the benign tumor.
House GOP leadership could be granted a brief reprieve when Georgia voters go to the polls in March to choose Greene’s successor. However, the more than a dozen GOP candidates on the ballot almost certainly mean the crowded primary contest will head to an April run-off election.
New Jersey will also hold a special election in April to fill a vacant seat following Democratic New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s resignation in December after her gubernatorial victory. Democrats are expected to successfully defend the blue-leaning suburban seat, meaning Johnson would continue to have a one-seat majority.
Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom has chosen to not schedule a special election to replace LaMalfa until August. LaMalfa’s successor may have a minimal impact on Johnson’s majority because the bulk of legislating this year is expected to be conducted prior to August.
The House is scheduled to be in recess for the whole months of August and October to allow members to campaign in their districts in the lead-up to November’s midterm elections.
Despite slim numbers, Johnson has repeatedly managed to steer President Donald Trump’s priorities through the House. Republicans’ signature tax and spending cut law and the $8 billion DOGE cuts package sailed through the lower chamber with little room for error.
Trump, who frequently offers public praise for Johnson, acknowledged the challenges the speaker faces with a shrinking majority.
“A lot of times they’ll say, ‘I wish Mike were tougher.’ He’s tough. He’s tough as anybody in the room, actually,” Trump said during a speech to House Republicans at the Kennedy Center in January. “But can’t be tough when you have a majority of three, a little bit less than that.”
Menefee is running against Democratic Texas Rep. Al Green in a March 3 Democratic primary that will take place under the Lone Star State’s redistricted House lines.
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