An internal note leaked on social media from Goldman Sachs on Friday warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could crater worldwide oil supply.
The “Are We Running Out Of Oil?” note analyzed product supplies, price responses and anecdotal angles suggesting that several countries could face either widespread oil scarcity or complete supply drains in critical energy sectors like fuel oil and gasoline, according to MarketWatch. Goldman Sachs’ research was published on Friday and made private, though several X users leaked graphs and analysis on social media.
“Our three-way analysis highlights already critically low supplies of petrochemical feedstocks — naphtha and LPG — in Asia, with cross-product scarcity in multiple Asian countries in April,” the note reads in part.
Goldman Sachs declined to comment when reached by the Daily Caller News Foundation.
X user ChrisO_Wiki published a multi-post thread highlighting that shipping through Hormuz has fallen by 94% since the start of the Iran war. The user further noted that the fuel oil primarily used for heating commercial and residential buildings could run out completely in multiple Southeast Asian countries.
“China, India, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, and Taiwan face the loss of 100% of their fuel oil supply. Outside Asia, the US is worst affected, with the loss of around 60% of its supply,” the thread reads in part.
Per the report, the United States would only lose about 3% of its diesel and jet fuel product supply. However, around 13% of U.S. Naphtha supply could also be lost. Gasoline stockpiles would only fall by 1% if exports were to remain at zero.
The thread also highlights that most major countries have at least 40 days’ supply of crude oil on average, with the exception being the United Kingdom at 14 days.
Due to strategic stocks being drawn down to make up for supply gaps, supply rationing would become “inevitable” and shortages would worsen if output from the strait remained at zero, the thread says. The user also cites a map from J.P. Morgan, showing that the U.S. and Europe will receive their last jet fuel tanker shipments by April 15.
“The consequences are likely to be severe, with physical shortages leading to rationing, demand destruction (flight cancellations, factories closing), and soaring prices as Asian countries pay premiums to divert oil and fuel tankers that would otherwise have gone to the West,” the thread concludes.
The report comes as tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate, with President Donald Trump issuing an expletive-laden rant demanding that Iran “Open the Fuckin’ Strait.” That social media post followed another one made on Saturday, warning “all hell will reign [sic] down” on Iran if the strait remained closed.
Some companies are already feeling surging fuel prices, with United Airlines increasing checked baggage fees by over $10 on a passenger’s first two bags each. Gas prices in the U.S. have also surged to over $4 a gallon, a sharp increase from under $3 in late February.
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