Maine Democratic Rep. Jared Golden has fallen behind his Republican opponent Austin Theriault in Maine’s second congressional district race — an election that could tip the scales of power in the U.S. House of Representatives, according to an Axis Research report published by Politico Wednesday.
With Republicans holding just a 221-to-214 majority in the House, Maine’s neck-and-neck second district race between three-term incumbent Golden and former NASCAR driver and state legislator Theriault might determine which party controls the House come January. Theriault has turned the tides of the election in recent months, going from trailing by ten percentage points in July to leading by two points in mid-October, Wednesday’s Axis Research study, which combined three districtwide polls fielded with likely 2024 voters, showed.
“This is one of the most competitive races in the country,” Erin Covey, editor of U.S. House elections at the Cook Political Report — a nonpartisan election and campaign watcher — told the Portland Press Herald in October. “This is going to be a race that could ultimately tip the balance of power to one party or the other, just because control of the House is so slim.”
Brand new polling out of #ME02 shows @AustinTheriault with a 2-point LEAD over flip-flopping radical @golden4congress.
Mainers know Golden is too extreme.https://t.co/iMyOejACBv pic.twitter.com/ArmKdAIEOt
— NRCC (@NRCC) October 23, 2024
The surge in support for Theriault correlates with an increase in his name recognition, as 72% of Maine voters were aware of Theriault as of mid-October, compared to just 39% in July, the Axis Research report stated. Theriault also has a net favorable rating, and is benefitting from a news cycle that is largely opposed to Golden, with 43% of voters hearing unfavorable news about the congressional incumbent and just 26% hearing positive information.
National political dynamics may also be benefitting Theriault, with former President Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Maine’s second congressional district increasing from a two-point advantage in July to a nine-point advantage in mid-October, according to Axis Research.
“I think Republicans are more confident this time than in previous years because they really like their challenger,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told the Portland Press Herald. “I think both sides are viewing it as a winnable race.”
The Golden and Theriault campaigns did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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