An increasingly complex conflict is emerging in the ruins of Bashar al-Assad’s fallen Syrian regime, pitting an American-backed force against a proxy that’s funded by a major U.S. ally.
The Syrian National Army (SNA), backed by NATO member Turkey, is locked into a conflict in northern Syria with the U.S.-backed Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The situation has only escalated, with the Turkish Defense Ministry denying talks of a ceasefire deal between the groups, contradicting the Department of State’s announcement of the continuation of the temporary peace brokered Dec. 10, according to Reuters.
The situation puts the American foreign policy establishment in a unique bind, where Washington ends up directly, and indirectly supporting opposing sides in a geopolitical conflict that’s attracting other key players, including Russia and Israel.
“The Kurds have long been a U.S. ally,” Gabriel Noronha, executive director of Polaris National Security, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “Throughout the Iraq War, they’ve been fantastic. They’re moderate, they’re secular, women get education. They’re sort of the ideal Middle East partner in terms of ideology and behavior, much better than pretty much anyone else out there except the Israelis. The other issue is that the SDF is in control of the ISIS prisons, which have tens of thousands of ISIS members and their families.”
Yet, the Kurds are facing off against SNA and its head —Turkey — a country the U.S. gave $100 million in military aid to over the last decade, according to the State Department. More recently in March, the Biden administration sold F-16 fighter jets to Turkey to bolster its air force.
The SNA initially formed in 2017 out of various rebel groups in northern Syria to oppose the Assad regime and Islamic fundamentalist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), according to Middle East Eye. However, their joining of HTS to take control of Damascus Dec. 7 marks a turn in their attitude towards the Islamic group.
Turkey recently branched out to the new HTS leaders of Syria to formalize diplomatic relations and call for the lifting of sanctions against the nation, according to Al Jazeera Sunday. HTS is also reportedly calling for a unified Syrian state without any special administrative divisions, killing the Kurdish desire for autonomy, according to Critical Threats.
The SNA’s activities almost invariably align with Turkish interests, according to Middle East Eye.
As a member of NATO, Turkey enjoys mutual defense from members if attacked. But the nation’s membership has been controversial, as they’ve attempted to block Sweden’s membership in 2023, acquired Russian missiles in 2019, and flew drones into U.S. airspace in Syria in October 2023.
On the other side, the U.S. aids the SDF with direct air and logistical support from its military bases in Syria while also serving an advisory role, according to the Pentagon. Moreover, President Joe Biden recently requested $147.9 million for fiscal year 2025 to fund the Counter-ISIS Train and Equip Fund, which helps arm the SDF, according to a Congressional Research Service (CRS) report released in July.
The U.S. also allocated $25 million in fiscal year 2024 to maintain the imprisonment of 46,000 people linked to ISIS, according to the CRS report. The SDF currently holds 9,000 ISIS soldiers in temporary detainment with limited security, with an SNA advance potentially opening the door for the fighters to escape and reestablish a presence in the country.
The U.S. recently conducted airstrikes against ISIS targets in an effort to temper their attempted resurgence.
There are 2,000 U.S. troops stationed in Syria providing support to the SDF to fight ISIS, nearly double the previous figure of 900 reported for months before, according to the Pentagon Thursday.
Noronha said Turkey sees the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is considered a terrorist group by Turkey and the U.S., as their primary enemy and linked to the rest of the SDF.
“There are different levels in terms of Kurdish forces, some of which are the [Kurdistan Workers’ Party] PKK, which is considered by Turkey to be a terror group,” Noronha told the DCNF. “For Turkey, the PKK, and by extension the SDF, are a threat to Turkish territorial integrity and other national interests. And so they’ve long had it out for them, and their goal is generally, wipe out the Kurds, or at least the Kurdish forces.”
Turkish President President Tayyip Erdogan said Friday he expects the SDF’s allies to withdraw their support for the group after Assad fell, saying the PKK and the rest of the SDF will “be crushed in the shortest possible time,” according to Reuters. Turkey has also said they would not have “talks with any terrorist organization” and that any U.S. suggestion of a truce between the SNA and the SDF “must be a slip of the tongue,” according to Reuters.
“This was a bad time for the whole [Syria] thing to happen,” Noronha told the DCNF. “There can’t be long term decisions made for the next month, but this is also a critical time to make decisions on engagement and have influence early on the process.”
As for Russia, satellite images show their forces seemingly evacuating bases on Syria’s west coast, according to the BBC. Russia was a prime backer of the Assad regime during its reign.
President-elect Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post Dec.7, before HTS took Damascus, that he wants the U.S. to stay uninvolved in Syria, saying there was not much to gain from increasing direct involvement at this time.
“The American people re-elected President Trump because they trust him to lead our country and restore peace through strength around the world,” Brian Hughes, Trump-Vance transition spokesman told the DCNF. “When he returns to the White House, he will take the necessary action to do just that.”
The State Department did not respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.
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