Japan’s likely new prime minister is a wake-up call for America’s Indo-Pacific allies who have been lagging in shoring up their militaries, foreign policy experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Sanae Takaichi, who is likely to become Japan’s first female prime minister after being named president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), has pledged to rapidly remilitarize Japan amid the growing Chinese threat in the Indo-Pacific region. The U.S. has long pressed Japan and other Asian states like Taiwan and South Korea to prepare for Chinese aggression, and Takaichi’s election may be Asia’s last call to bolster their militaries, experts told the DCNF.
“Xi put a time limit on it,” Victoria Coates, former National Security Advisor to President Trump, told the DCNF. “He said, ‘Be ready to go by 2027.’ So, that means not only that the [People’s Liberation Army] needs to be ready by 2027, but Taiwan and any who would participate in the defense of Taiwan need to be ready by 2027.”
Takaichi has advocated for repealing Article 9 of the Japanese constitution, a pacifist measure instituted after World War II under American occupation to prevent a resurgent Japanese empire. However, the article has effectively lost its original purpose due to both cordial U.S.-Japan relations and growing threats from China.
“Takaichi’s likely selection as PM of Japan means Japan will take a serious approach to security,” William Chou, senior fellow and deputy director of Hudson Institute’s Japan Chair, told the DCNF. “Japan faces threats from China, North Korea, and Russia, in numerous sectors — military, energy, supply chains, cyber.”
Takaichi was mentored in large part by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was also a strong proponent of Japanese rearmament and close friend to President Donald Trump. In 2014, Abe modified the interpretation of Article 9 in order to allow for “collective self-defense” in the face of attacks on allies.
“As any security contingency involving Japan would almost certainly involve an attack on US forces, Japan will respond,” Chou told the DCNF.
U.S. defense experts and officials have long held frustrations with Japan over their defense spending, saying the nation must seriously increase its investments in its military amid China’s rapid militarization.
“I think if you look at the facts [of] Japan’s [defense] spending… it’s improvement but it’s manifestly inadequate for the strategic situation,” a U.S. defense official told the DCNF in August.
However, Japan faces serious economic challenges that have significantly hampered its ability to spend on its military. As of October, the Japan’s debt has exceeded its gross domestic product (GDP) by 149% while its GDP growth remains underwhelming amid a shrinking population.
As Takaichi pushes to re-arm Japan, Washington’s growing frustration with Taiwan and South Korea has pressured both nations to follow suit. Taiwan plans to massively increase its defense spending amid American pressure for 2026, planning to surpass 3% of its GDP in defense spending with a $31.27 billion investment.
South Korea has also pledged to increase its military spending by 8.2% next year in response to U.S. pressure. However, questions still remain as to whether or not Taiwan and South Korea’s efforts will be enough given the 2027 timeline.
Much like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan also face increasing economic headwinds, with the nations suffering declining birthrates and mounting public debts that threaten to hamper rapid military expansion.
“They need to have a real sense of urgency here because the clock is ticking,” Coates told the DCNF.
While Takaichi is not formally Japan’s leader yet, she is highly likely to ascend to the office due to the LDP’s dominance in the lower house of Japan’s government. She also admired late UK prime minister Margaret Thatcher during her campaign.
“My goal is to become the Iron Lady,” she told a group of school children during her recent campaign, according to the BBC.
The Pentagon did not respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.
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