American firms are crushing earnings expectations despite warnings from so-called experts of economic doom brought on by President Donald Trump’s economic policies.
S&P 500 firms posted second-quarter profits nearly 11% higher than a year earlier, and well above the 4% growth analysts had forecasted, according to investment bank Goldman Sachs. The strong corporate earnings followed predictions from analysts and corporate media outlets that Trump’s tariff regime would cripple economic growth and fuel runaway inflation.
“Earnings are the mother’s milk of the stock market, so these high earnings are a great sign that business conditions are strong and Trump’s pro-business policies are working to the benefit of workers and businesses,” Steve Moore, economist and visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation, told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
More companies beat earnings estimates this quarter than at any point since the third quarter of 2021, with around 82% exceeding forecasts, according to Bloomberg.
Much of that growth has been driven by tech giants like Meta and Microsoft, which are leading a surge in artificial intelligence (AI) investment, according to The Wall Street Journal. Other companies supporting the AI boom, such as chipmaker Nvidia, also reported strong results.
Not only did corporate earnings exceed expectations, but mentions of a “recession” during earnings calls have also plunged 84% this quarter, signaling renewed corporate confidence, according to AlphaSense.
Stocks also initially took a nosedive after Trump’s April “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, but have since surged 29% off their April lows, according to WSJ.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration has signed trade deals with major trade partners, including Japan, the U.K., the European Union and South Korea, as well as a temporary agreement with China. Talks with Canada and India are still underway to ease the high rates that Trump imposed on Aug. 6.
Moreover, Republicans enacted the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act, which permanently extends the tax cuts implemented during Trump’s first administration and introduces additional pro-business reforms, including the Pass-Through Entity Tax deduction and other deductions for research and development investments, which earned numerous major business endorsements.
“Demand was weak for the last five months due to high levels of uncertainty for both businesses and consumers,” said United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby on a July 17 earnings call, according to WSJ. “But in the past few weeks, the level of uncertainty has declined … And encouragingly, that higher level of certainty has translated into a meaningful inflection point in demand.”
The labor market is exhibiting signs of a slowdown, however. It added just 73,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in July while revising other monthly reports downward. Following the weak jobs report, Trump dismissed Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and nominated conservative economist Dr. E.J. Antoni to replace her.
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