Business leaders projected that the odds of the U.S. economy entering into a recession were low ahead of President Donald Trump’s return to office, according to a recent survey from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE).
The majority of NABE members surveyed, 82%, put the probability of a U.S. recession at 25% or lower over the next year, according to a survey published on Jan. 22. Of those surveyed, 62% reported no change in prices, while 30% reported higher prices, the smallest share since January 2021.
This marks an increase from NABE’s October 2024 survey, when only 56% of those surveyed put the probability of a U.S. recession at 25% or lower.
“The January 2025 NABE Business Conditions Survey results reveal that business conditions remained relatively unchanged through the end of 2024, although a larger share of respondents than in the previous survey foresees higher prices going forward,” NABE President Emily Kolinski Morris wrote in the press release. “At the same time, the odds of a recession continue to diminish according to panelists, with the downside risks largely tied to uncertainty over the implementation and timing of policy proposals from the new administration.”
Trump issued a slew of executive actions upon returning to the Oval Office on Jan. 20, including signing an executive order aimed at increasing “the prosperity of the American worker,” which requires the heads of all executive departments and agencies to “deliver emergency price relief” for Americans. While on the campaign trail, Trump pledged to boost domestic manufacturing and enact economic policies that benefit average Americans.
“The survey results suggest a steady-state economy,” NABE Business Conditions Survey Chair Selma Hepp, chief economist and senior vice president at CoreLogic, wrote in the press release. “However, concerns remain regarding shortages of skilled labor and a potential for more price pressures ahead. In addition, the outcome of the recent U.S. elections did not change hiring or investment plans for 70% of respondents.”
Under former President Joe Biden’s sole term, stubbornly-high inflation left Americans battling with various financial hurdles, including struggling to afford the cost of groceries and other everyday goods. The economy was the most important issue for Americans in the 2024 presidential election. Notably, small business owners’ optimism climbed to a six-year high ahead of Trump’s return to office.
The NABE survey was conducted from December 30, 2024 to Jan. 13.
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