NewsNation political contributor Chris Cillizza on Wednesday said he was struck by how well President Donald Trump performed with nonwhite voters, based on fresh data on the 2024 election from Democratic data firm Catalist.
Catalist’s analysis found that former Vice President Kamala Harris lost in part due to unprecedentedly receiving under 50% backing from infrequent and new voters, who are typically more young and diverse than the general electorate, according to The Cook Political Report, which first reported on the analysis on Monday. Cillizza said on his “So What” Substack that he was particularly impressed by Trump making inroads with young nonwhite voters.
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“I think a lot of people, particularly Democrats, like to dismiss the Trump coalition as, you know, a bunch of white men. Yes, white men did move toward Trump more in 2024 than 2020 — he won white men by 4% more in 2024 than 2020 — but not huge,” Cillizza said. “And by the way, white men without college degrees, Donald Trump’s supposed base, they moved three points more toward Trump. So remember, Latino men moved four times more toward Donald Trump in 2024 than white men without a college degree, which is pretty striking. So again, Latino men 12 points more Republican in 2024 than 2020. That is striking. Men overall six points.”
“Okay, then let’s go to 18 to 29 year olds. So these are the youngest cohort of voters. This had been [former President] Barack Obama’s wheelhouse. I mean, he won overwhelmingly, 60 plus percent, with this voting cohort. In 2024, 18 to 29 year olds voted 6% overall — all 18 to 29 year olds — voted 6% more Republican than they had in 2020. But if you look at young people of color, it’s even more striking,” he continued. “Latino 18 to 29 year olds, again, 12 points more Republican than they had been four years ago. Asian-Americans and Pacific Islanders nine more points Republican than they had been four years ago. Urban 18 to 29 year olds, those living in cities, 9% more Republican than they had been four years ago. So you had men and young people, particularly men of color and young people of color, moving pretty heavily toward Donald Trump. And what you didn’t have to counteract that, which could have helped Harris win, was women overall moving more toward her.”
However, Trump actually did 1% better with women overall in 2024 against Harris than he did against former President Joe Biden in 2020, Cillizza noted, based on Catalist’s data. He also said Trump did 7% better with Hispanic women and 4% better with Asian-American and Pacific Islander women, while performing the same as he did with black women and white women.
Trump also secured all seven battleground states and won the national popular vote by millions, according to The Cook Political Report.
Pollster Frank Luntz told Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom during a May 14 episode of “This Is Gavin Newsom” that Harris had only herself to blame for losing in 2024, arguing her debate performance and the exorbitant funds in support of her candidacy should have propelled her to victory.
“Why did she lose when she had the election? She had more money than God, had an amazing debate performance that everyone saw. There was never another debate. She’d gone into the lead there. Why did she lose? She lost because of herself,” Luntz said. “In the end, it’s not just what’s going on around you. You have to tell people what you are for. You have to tell them what you will do and you have to be able to show that you can get it done.”
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