Today, former President Donald Trump, who leads polls to reclaim the presidency, chose Ohio Republican Sen. J.D. Vance to be his running mate. The move was bold and brilliant, and reinforces that the New Right that Trump leads is poised for a once-in-generation chance to remake U.S. politics.
Vance once shared the skepticism many of us had for Trump before he became the nominee in 2016. But the two men made amends when they saw each other for what they were: Trump the catalyst to disrupt the losing corporatist Republican Party of old and Vance the appealing young man who made the intellectual and emotional case for Trump’s economic populism in his book, “Hillbilly Elegy.”
Since then, Vance has evolved into a political force for much of what Trump and the New Right seek: economic opportunity for middle America, a controlled border, reduced immigration, tariffs on China and others and a far more reticent foreign policy. More broadly, these steps mean a slap down of the corrupt and inept powers that run government and business.
Trump followed the wise and then-revolutionary move Bill Clinton made ahead of his election victory in 1992. Clinton chose as his running mate then-Tennessee Democratic Sen. Al Gore, who before subsequently going insane was a moderate southern politician like Clinton.
This choice upended conventional wisdom that tickets needed “balance.” Before then, teams like Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush, John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson and Franklin Roosevelt and John Nance Garner (FDR’s first of three veeps — a conservative Texan), were the result of the presidential candidate choosing someone from a different geography or wing of the party to try to soothe those who weren’t completely comfortable with the head of the ticket.
Clinton’s move was smarter though since it reflected his own disposition at the time. The ticket would be comprised of the first Baby Boomers with a shot at winning, both from the South, and both representing a break from the faculty lounge, tax-and-spend liberalism that had led the Democrats to successive defeats.
The move enhanced the image of the ticket and made it all the more clear to the public, which obliged with its votes. It also meant the vice president would be more likely to have the faith and trust of the president, rather than be seen as a potential rival and interloper.
With Vance, Trump is repeating this smart move — even though it remains a gamble today as it was then. The globalist and neoconservative wing of the GOP is down but not completely out.
For example, The Wall Street Journal editorial page, which loves war in Ukraine and open borders as much as it hates tariffs on countries that have tariffs on us, will be a very sad panda. Carl Rove appeared very upset on television.
The NeverTrumpers are apoplectic. They and the Bush and Romney remnants in the party — along with Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell (who was booed at the Republican convention)— and his fellow travelers wanted former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. She is beloved by everyone except voters and would have been an island of opposition to Trump in the White House and a voice for intervention and nation-building on the National Security Council.
In contrast, Vance isn’t just on board with the Trump insurgency, he is already part of it. Vance is also a good debater and effective on television. If the Democrats are dumb enough to agree to a debate between him and Vice President Kamala Harris, it should be a fun drubbing.
Two questions arise: First, can Vance survive four years in Trump’s orbit if elected with his reputation intact or enhanced to make him a leading candidate in 2028? Second, can he really help Trump govern an executive branch that is massively bloated, overreaching and out of control?
The age difference between Trump and Vance should help the would-be vice president. Trump has gone to great lengths to win power and attempt to do so again — almost losing his life in the process.
Like all presidents, he is not eager to share the limelight or the hard-won power he will have gained. Trump’s first vice president, Mike Pence, knew this but still got burned in the end.
Vance is likely a smarter political operator to amplify what the president is saying rather than compete with it, or be a stuffed-shirt bystander.
As for the second question, Vance served previously in the executive branch as a U.S. Marine, but his government experience comes from the Senate, entering office only last year. But Trump doesn’t need a calm manager and experienced bureaucrat as vice president.
He is better off with a fellow revolutionary who will help Trump forcefully as he battles incumbent deadwood and swamp critters who populate much of the executive branch and oppose everything about Trump. He can also likely help Trump weed out charlatans seeking office who bedeviled Trump’s first term.
I usually roll my eyes at people who say that any given election is the most important in our lives. Only history will tell whether that is true in this instance.
But given Trump’s strong electoral prospects and wisdom from past battles won and lost, and given his excellent selection of Vance, the choice in 2024 may be as big as the one in 1980 that ushered in Reaganism or in 1932 that launched not only Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal but a new political coalition that dominated the country for decades.
Trump has seen to it that voters have a choice for a new type of politics and policies — a New Right reflected both by Trump and his choice for vice president. The fast-approaching crossroads for our country that define this election just became clearer still, and Trump and Vance will clarify them more as the campaign enters its final stretch.
Would you expect anything less from Trump?
Christian Whiton was a senior advisor in the Trump and George W. Bush administrations.
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