NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd warned Friday that Democratic Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania could lose his reelection bid.
Casey leads Republican candidate Dave McCormick by 3.9% in the RealClearPolling average of polls taken from Sept. 17 to Oct. 8, but four of the last five polls show Casey’s lead to be no larger than two points. Todd told MSNBC host Andrea Mitchell that McCormick appeared to be replicating the ability of Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine to win a Senate seat despite her party’s presidential nominee losing the state.
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“This is the race that I think is — when I look at which one of these swing state Senate races can defy the presidential, right? We have seen — there’s been — since the rise of Trump, only Susan Collins has been able to break this mold where she could win her Senate seat while the other party won the presidential in her state,” Todd said. “She did that in 2020. There’s so much money for McCormick. Casey is being outspent and there’s something missing for Casey this time. It feels — you can sometimes feel when a candidate —”
“So, you think Harris could win Pennsylvania but Casey could lose?” Mitchell asked Todd.
Former President Donald Trump currently leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 0.4% in the state, according to the RealClearPolling average.
“I think the Senate race has been slightly separated in that state, a bit from the presidential,” Todd responded. “I think of all the ones, I think Michigan and Wisconsin can no more than one or two points from the presidential. Pennsylvania is the only one I think differently on.”
While Republicans outnumber Democrats in the Senate, 49-47, four independents caucus with the Democrats, giving them control of the body.
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