CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten warned Democrats on Wednesday that Republicans have a strong likelihood of holding onto the majority of governorships nationwide after the 2026 midterm elections.
While early polling suggests there will be a blue wave in the upcoming elections, aggregate polling found there will likely be 26 Republican governors and 20 Democratic governors in office after the midterms, Enten said. He added that Republicans are not expected to lose any gubernatorial races and may gain seats in the toss-up races.
“Look at this, a majority, a majority, 26. That is, at this point, the number of governors that are expected at least tilting towards the Republican Party at this point. Democrats come in at just 20. The rest of the races are toss-up. Of course, you sum up to 50. And I will note that the Republicans right now hold a 26 to 24 gubernatorial seat advantage,” Enten said.
“So at this point, it doesn’t look like Republicans on the net and the aggregate are actually going to lose any governorships. In fact, when you add in those toss-ups, they may gain,” Enten continued. “So this should stand as a major wake-up call to Democrats, because if there’s a wave building, it has not, at least at this point, hit the state level when it comes to governorships.”
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Democrats have not held a majority of governorships since 2010, which marks the longest timeframe where Democrats have been in the minority of governorships in at least a century. Republicans have also held a majority of state legislatures since 2012.
“This is a massive problem for Democrats, because as we mentioned at the top, a lot of the policy is determined on the state level. And if all of a sudden you can’t actually lead a majority of governorships, the executive branch on the state level, that means Republicans are in fact forming and implementing most of the policies in the states, and therefore a lot of the policies nationwide,” Enten added.
At least 21 states will have new governors by next year, including in Minnesota, where Democratic Gov. Tim Walz dropped out of the race in January while he received scrutiny for the Somali fraud scandals. Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will also be leaving office due to term limits.
Democrats won sweeping victories in the 2025 off-year gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, which increased Democratic control to 24 governorships nationwide.
While Republicans will likely hold onto to the governorships, Democrats show a 5-point advantage in generic congressional polls, which indicates that they are likely to secure a majority in the House of Representatives, according to the Silver Bulletin. Republicans are favored to hold onto their majority in the U.S. Senate, despite currently holding 22 of the 35 seats up for reelection.
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