CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Friday there is a “slight hint of Trump momentum” across the seven key battleground states just four days before the 2024 election.
Trump is leading Harris across the battleground states by an average of less than 1 point as of Nov. 1, though these polling averages are within a 3.4% margin of error, Enten said. The former president’s slight leads in Pennsylvania and the Sunbelt states indicates that his momentum has grown as Harris’ has declined.
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“It’s historically tight. Arizona’s the widest margin at +3 for Trump, Georgia is +2, +1 in North Carolina, a tie in Nevada. You come over here, I think the biggest shift is you’re used to seeing blue [in the Great Lakes states] … But it’s actually red, we’ve got red in Pennsylvania if you take the average polls. Again, it’s so, so, so tight, but it’s Trump by barely, less than 1 point in the great commonwealth of Pennsylvania. But the bottom-line is this, this has been a historically tight race, it continues to be a historically tight race and I have no real concept of who is going to win on Tuesday.”
“I want to point out a few little things here, if we look right now in sort of the momentum that we’re seeing here, this I think gets the point that I was trying to make, a shift perhaps and a little bit of momentum here. If you took an aggregate across the battlegrounds last month, on October 1, it was Harris by less than 1 point. You look here now on November 1, it’s Trump by less than 1 point across the battleground states. But the key thing to keep in mind is that the average state polling is 3.4 points, so when you see stuff like this and you’re going from less than 1 point to less than 1 point, you could say there’s a slight hint of Trump momentum, but that is well within any margin of error.”
The former president would secure 312 electoral votes in the event that he won Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, making him president-elect, Enten said. If the polls are underestimating Harris, she will win all of the battleground states and secure 319 electoral votes.
Polls by CNBC and The Wall Street Journal found in late October that Trump secured a lead over Harris nationally after he had been trailing the vice president in the first few months of her campaign. The vice president’s popularity declined in October after she participated in a media blitz with mostly friendly outlets, indicating that her momentum has gone downhill, MSNBC national political correspondent Steve Kornacki said in an Oct. 24 segment.
Trump could be on track to be the first Republican nominee to win the popular vote since 2004, Enten said during an Oct. 25 CNN segment.
(Featured Image Media Credit: Screenshot/CNN)
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