CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Republican nominee Donald Trump is “more popular now” than he was in the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Trump’s current net favorability currently stands at -9 points, which is higher than his -27 net favorability rating in 2016 and -12 points in 2020, Enten said. The reporter added that the former president’s favorability is at the best it has ever been as Vice President Kamala Harris’ momentum has stalled.
“Here’s the deal, if you believe that Donald Trump has somehow become less popular over time, let me change your mind about that. In fact, he is more popular at this point in the campaign than he was at this point in the 2020 campaign or the 2016 campaign,” Enten said. “Look, he’s still under water with a -9 point net favorability rating. But that is higher than he was in 2020 at -12 points when he nearly won, and that’s way higher than the -27 net favorability back in 2016 when he did win. So, I think there’s this real question in Kamala Harris’ mind, in the campaign’s mind, why is Trump more popular now than he was in 2020 and 2016.”
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Harris’ popularity rose significantly once she launched her presidential candidacy on July 21, surging from -15 points on July 17 to -4 points on Aug. 17, Enten said. Her ratings have since dropped from +1 points in September to -1 points as of October 17.
“Kamala Harris had her popularity rising once of course she became the presumptive Democratic nominee,” Enten said. “Look, she was at -15 points back [on] July 17 and -4 point on August 17, then +1 points, she was actually in positive territory a month ago. But she has fallen back down to -1. The momentum of Kamala Harris has stalled, and I think they feel like they have to change something that’s going on in their campaign because they were seeing a rise and now it has stalled out.”
“Look, she’s still more popular than Trump, but look, Joe Biden was more popular than Trump, much more popular and barely won, and Hillary Clinton was much more popular than Donald Trump and lost. Being more popular than Trump isn’t enough, she has to continue seeing her favor-abilities rise, but in fact they’re going in the wrong direction,” Enten continued.
The former president is currently leading in every major swing state less than 20 days out from the election, RealClear polling averages found Friday. He holds a 0.8 point lead against Harris in Wisconsin, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada.
Harris’ positivity rating dropped from 48% in September to 43% in October, while her negativity rating rose from 45% to 49%, MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki pointed out Monday. Her 5-point lead against Trump in September turned into a deadlock tie of 48% to 48% in October.
The vice president’s polling averages in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are up by 1 point against Trump, which stands significantly lower than President Joe Biden’s 8-point lead ahead of the election, Enten pointed out Monday. Biden only narrowly won in these states, indicating that Harris’ 1-point lead may not be enough to secure these states.
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